US Stocks Drop, Affecting Taiwan Stocks 美股收黑影響 台股開低走高.多空交戰

The United States announced that June's consumer price index grew at 9.1 percent year-over-year, a new high in more than 40 years. The S&P 500 index ended lower on July 13 after fluctuating for much of the session as investors digested hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which fueled fears that the Federal Reserve could raise key interest rates by as much as 100 basis points later this month. Experts said that once the U.S. economy declines, Taiwan's exports may be affected in the future. Taiwan stocks responded to the negative news by falling as much as 165 points at one point during the session. 


Juan Ching-hwa, Executive Secretary, National Financial Stabilization Fund: “Because we have now decided to enter the market, I cannot comment. Of course, we will pay attention to stock market performance.”

Deputy Finance Minister Juan Ching-hwa, also the operational head of the National Financial Stabilization Fund, held a meeting before the Taiwanese stock market opened on the 14th. The price performance of Taiwan stocks on the 14th did not continue its strength from the previous day's price support from the NFSF. The U.S. just announced that June's consumer price index reached 9.1 percent year-on-year, a new high in more than 40 years. Due to the drop in all three U.S. stock indexes, Taiwanese stocks plummeted as soon as the market opened on the 14th, falling as much as 165 points during the session. However, the bulls battled the bears throughout the session, with the NFSF supporting the market. At 11 a.m., the market rose more than 100 points.

Wang Jung-hsu, CEO, Marbo Investment Advisors: “There is no way for human intervention to influence the global negative trend. The NFSF is to support the market from falling further, rather than pull up stock prices so everyone can unravel and profit from their positions. The NFSF usually target large-cap stocks in their stock buying.”

TSMC's stock price bucked the trend and increased, due to NFSF's support. TSMC is expected to report new record revenues for the third quarter. Its stock price performed well intraday and once rose by as much as NT$7. The U.S. inflation is severe. Analysts predict the U.S. Federal Reserve will aggressively hike interest rates to curb prices, possibly as high as 1 percent. Experts said that if the U.S. economy is affected in the future, it may negatively affect Taiwan's exports.

Chiu Ta-sheng, Analyst, International Affairs Dept., TIER: “A tightening by the U.S. Fed will ultimately suppress consumer demand in the country. This should negatively impact Taiwanese exports in the second half of this year.”

The International Monetary Fund revised the U.S. economic growth forecast for this year and next year. It warned that inflation has risen across the board and that both the U.S. and global economies pose systemic risks. Experts said that Taiwan's export performance in the second half of this year is critical to whether the country can maintain a 4 percent economic growth rate.

 

 

 

國安基金執行秘書阮清華說:「因為現在已經決議進場,不能對外發言,當然一定會關注(台股走勢)啊。」

阮清華在台股開盤前已先開會,今(14)日台股走勢,恐怕無法延續前一天國安基金進場護盤的漲勢。因為美國公佈6月消費者物價指數不樂觀,CPI年增率達9.1%,創40多年來新高。美股三大指數收跌影響,台股今日一開盤立刻重挫,盤中一度跌165點,在國安基金進場護盤下,上演多空交戰,逆勢拉回,截至上午11時,一度上漲超過百點。

萬寶投顧執行長王榮旭表示:「沒有辦法靠人為的干預去影響全球的趨勢大洪流,國安基金護盤是我撐住你不要跌,而不是說要把這個股價把他拉高,讓大家解套,護盤的這個對象通常都是大型的一個個股。」

國安基金護盤挹注下,權值股台積電股價也逆勢翻紅,加上下午法說會,外界預測第三季營收創新高,盤中股價表現亮眼,一度最高漲7塊。不過,美國通膨嚴峻,為了抑制物價,外界預測美國聯準會,鷹式升息再啟,最高一口氣恐調升4碼。學者表示,若未來美國經濟受影響,台灣出口恐怕也不樂觀。

台經院國際事務處研究員邱達生指出:「(美國)聯準會的一個緊縮,某種程度上會抑制美國的市場終端需求,下半年的出口比較會產生一些影響。」

國際貨幣基金組織IMF,12日也下修美國今、明兩年經濟成長預測,並警告通膨全面上升,美國和全球經濟都構成系統性風險。學者表示,今年下半年出口表現好壞,攸關台灣經濟成長率是否能保4。

 

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