TSMC Faces Order Cutback from Four Major Clients 遭四大客戶砍單 台積電月產恐銳減1.5萬片

The latest research report from J.P. Morgan points out that TSMC has seen its major clients adjust downward their chip orders and therefore had to shut down four "EUL" machines, decreasing monthly production by 15,000 chips. Today, TSMC share price opened low and stayed low, with intraday share price down to NT$475, dropping NT$14.

Liao En-ping, Professional Associate, Securities Investment Department, President Futures Co.: “For the past 10 years at or around Mid-Autumn Festival, there has been a 70 percent chance of TAIEX dropping.”

The Taiwan Stock may flip and take a downward trend around Mid-Autumn Festival. Securities analysts note that it's mainly due to the major investors adjusting their "short-term chips" before the long weekend. Nevertheless, observing long-term trends, consumer electronics demands are dropping, and mature-processed electronics stocks are facing a "de-inventory" storm; thus the hot season in the latter half of this year may not be hot anymore. Meanwhile, this "de-inventory" fire has burned to "advance-process" TSMC. TSMC's share price opened low and stayed low on Sept. 7, with the lowest intraday price down to NT$475, dropping NT$14.

Liao En-ping, Professional Associate, Securities Investment Dept., President Futures Co.: “We knew in the last few weeks that TSMC's capacity utilization for 6-nano and 7-nano chips has dropped to nearly 90 percent. And this time with 5-nano, it will likely drop to 92-93 percent.”

J.P. Morgan announced in its latest report that TSMC, confronted with slashed orders from four advanced process clients, including Mediatek, AMD, Qualcomm, and Nvidia, had to unprecedentedly shut down four Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography machines, with monthly production decreasing by 15,000 chips and earnings next year down by 10 percent.

Liu Pei-cheng, Director, Taiwan Industry Economics Services: “Consumer electronics, even smartphones are slowly being affected, including servers and cloud computation. The U.S. government may restrict relevant AI accelerator chips, thus exporting to China may affect clients' subsequent orders. ”

With TSMC leading the drop, Taiwan Stock opened low and stayed low in the morning. It reached 14,410 intraday, dropping 267 points, wavering between long and short shocks. Overshadowed by electronics stocks' "de-inventory" effect, foreign investments continued to oversell. However, the new iPhone will enter the market on Sept. 8 at 1:00 a.m. Taiwan time. Whether this will inject some rebound strength into Taiwan's electronics supply chain depends on whether the new phone's highlight features will be favored by the global consumer market. 


 

統一期貨投顧部專業協理廖恩平表示：「最近這10年中秋節前後，（台股指數）下跌機率有70%。」

台股中秋變盤，趨勢向下，證券分析師表示，主要是投資主力連假前短期籌碼調整。不過，長期趨勢觀察，消費性電子需求減緩，成熟製程電子類股面臨庫存去化風暴，今年下半年恐旺季不旺。而去庫存這把火已燒向先進製程台積電。7日台積電股價開低走低，盤中最低一度跌到475元，跌14元。

廖恩平分析：「前幾週就已經知道台積電在6奈米跟7奈米這邊，它的產能利用率已經有下降到接近90%，那這一次聽到個5奈米，大概也會下降到92%到93%，這樣子的一個狀況。」

外資摩根大通公布最新報告指出，台積電面臨聯發科、超微、高通、輝達等4大先進製程客戶砍單，破天荒關閉4台EUV極紫外光機，月產能恐銳減1.5萬片，明年獲利恐衰退近一成。

台經院產經資料庫總監劉佩真指出：「消費性電子甚至在智慧型手機，有慢慢延伸到包括伺服器跟雲端運算，美國政府也有可能在未來，會比較限制相關AI加速器的一些晶片那麼出口到中國，會逐步影響客戶對它的一個下單量。」

在台積電領跌下，早盤台股指數也是開低走低，盤中最低來到1萬4410點，一度跌267點，多空震盪。電子股去庫存利空罩頂，外資持續賣超。不過台灣時間8日凌晨一點，蘋果新機上市，是否為台廠電子供應鏈注入反彈力道，仍需觀察新機亮點是否受全球消費市場青睞。