Taiwan Preparing for Russia-Ukraine War Breaking Out 俄烏情勢緊張 總統指示穩定國內物價.金融

As the Ukrainian tensions are escalating, President Tsai Ing-wen said response plans have been made to maintain Taiwan's domestic supplies, prices, and the stability of the financial market.


The situation in Ukraine caused the S&P 500 to fall by 1.01 percent, the Nasdaq by 1.23 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 1.42 percent. Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer, and the Brent crude oil price approached US$100. President Tsai Ing-wen listened to a briefing from a "Ukraine situation response group" and ordered ministries to prepare response plans to maintain Taiwan's domestic supplies, prices, and financial market stability.

Kung Ming-hsin, National Development Minister: “The government began making plans before the Lunar New Year. If there is an impact on the stock market in the short term, relevant ministries have already prepared some methods and countermeasures. ”

The Ministry of Economic Affairs is prepared to launch the oil price stabilization mechanism if the oil price rises to NT$32.5 per liter. 

Wang Mei-hua, Economic Affairs Minister: “If the oil price reaches NT$32.5, then our CPC Corporation will absorb half of the increase.”

Analysts say a Russia-Ukraine war will directly affect natural gas and crude oil prices. However, if the oil price rises, then the US may produce shale oil. Middle Eastern oil producers that cut their output because of the pandemic may increase their output, allowing the price to stabilize. The impact on prices and inflation will be limited unless the war drags on.
 

Chen Been-lon, Research Fellow, Inst. of Economics, Academia Sinica: “It should be okay. I think it will mainly affect energy and rare materials. That region is not a global economic center and so the impact won't be big.”

Scholars said the situation may still change, so the biggest variable in US stock exchanges is the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates. If a war breaks out, the scope and frequency of interest rate hikes may be reduced, resulting in an offsetting effect that will only have an impact in the short term. For Taiwan, that means the most important task is maintaining reserves of goods to ensure that people's daily lives won't be affected. Related countermeasures can be taken depending on how the situation evolves.

 

 

 

標普500指數下跌1.01%、那斯達克下跌1.23%,道瓊指數更是下跌1.42%,美股受烏克蘭局勢衝擊下跌。由於俄羅斯為全球第三大產油國,布蘭特原油本週一度逼近百元大關,面對可能來襲的全球經濟衝擊,總統蔡英文聽取「烏克蘭情勢因應小組」簡報,要求各部會做好相關因應規劃,維持國內物資、物價與金融市場的穩定。

國發會主委龔明鑫表示:「在過年之前政府就曾進行沙盤推演,「那至於就是短期間,如果對股匯市有一些影響的話,相關部會事實上也都擬好了一些方法跟對策。」

經濟部規劃,國內油價如果漲到每公升32.5元,將會啟動油價平穩機制。

經濟部長王美花說明:「假設油價若觸及32.5元,那麼我們中油就會吸收這個上漲的一半。」

有經濟學者分析,如果俄羅斯烏克蘭開戰,最直接衝擊將天然氣與原油價格。不過一但油價飆高,美國頁岩油將可能開採,先前因疫情減產的中東產油國也可能加快增產,將會讓油價回穩,除非戰事拉長,否則對物價與通貨膨脹的影響可能有限。

中研院經濟所研究員陳明郎認為:「應該還好,我覺得主要是能源跟那些稀有的原料,因為那地區基本上不是全球的經濟重心,所以其實影響應該不大。」

學者也分析,相對於烏克蘭局勢變化,美國股匯市最大變數還是美國聯準會升息,一旦發生戰爭,升息幅度與頻率將可能降低,產生抵銷效果,只會在短期內造成影響。對我國來說,最重要的還是先維持物資存量,讓民眾生活能夠穩定不受影響,接著再視情勢發展,思考相關對策。

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