COVID-19 Cases Expected to Surge After Holiday 中秋連假人群聚集 醫估節後單日恐5-6萬例

The domestic epidemic situation is escalating, and the Mid-Autumn Festival long weekend is right around the corner. Doctors say the Omicron subvariant BA.5 is already the dominant strain and gatherings are likely during the holiday. As a result, the number of daily cases after the holiday could rise 50,000 to 60,000.

The number of new daily COVID-19 cases has been rising this week. Sept. 9 is the start of the Mid-Autumn Festival long weekend. Infectious diseases doctor Huang Li-min says the number of new daily cases this week hasn't hit 40,000 yet, but the epidemic situation is escalating and Taiwan hasn't yet seen the BA.5 peak. He estimates that the number of new daily cases after the holiday could reach 50,000 to 60,000.

Huang Li-min, Infectious Diseases Doctor: “If we don't receive next-generation vaccines, then the number of people with BA.5 infections won't be less than that of BA.2. Let's say BA.2 infected 20 percent of the population. That means that BA.5 will infect at least 20 percent of the population, although it may take several months. The next-generation vaccines that we're going to get are directed against BA.1, so they will only have a little suppressive ability on BA.5.”

Doctors say that if people continue getting vaccines that are directed against the original variant and get over three shots, then the shots may fatigue people's immune systems. There will be protection, but it will last a shorter period of time. If next-generation vaccines are not administered, then the number of infections caused by BA.5 won't be lower than that caused by BA.2. Other doctors say Taiwan has already switched from a zero COVID policy to coexistence, and not gathering together or having barbecues during the Mid-Autumn Festival seems to be a bit against human nature. They say that people, other than unvaccinated people, can live normally if they practice good disease prevention. 

Chiang Kuan-yu, Doctor: “If you make sure you test negative in a rapid test before going somewhere that will lower than overall risk of infection. If you're removing your mask to eat, put it on before talking. These are more effective measures than partitions.”

Doctors say people can still wear masks while chatting during barbecues at ventilated outdoor locations. The risk of getting infected this way is even lower than talking at a restaurant with partitions. People should also frequently disinfect shared restrooms used during gatherings.

本土病例數在本週逐日上升，而這週五就是中秋節連續假期，台大感染科醫師黃立民估計，目前單日病例數未達4萬，還沒有到BA.5高峰，疫情還在爬升，預估中秋過後南來北往人群聚集，病例數有機會繼續爬升到單日5到6萬例。

感染科醫師黃立民表示：「如果沒有次世代疫苗進來的話，BA.5感染的人數不會比BA.2少，BA.2假設感染20%的人，那BA.5至少也會感染20%人口，當然時間可能會拉幾個月，那現在如果等次世代疫苗，現在我們要打的是BA.1的次世代疫苗，這個對BA.5會有一點點壓制能力。」

醫師分析，如果繼續施打目前的原始株疫苗，隨著劑量超3三劑身體免疫力會疲乏，保護力還是有但是會越來越短，如果次世代疫苗沒有銜接上，最後BA.5的感染個案數不會少於BA.2。而也有醫師認為，隨著國內防疫政策早已從清零轉為共存，中秋不團聚不烤肉似乎有點違反人性，因此除了未施打疫苗的高風險族群外，民眾只要做好防疫還是可以正常生活。

醫師姜冠宇表示：「快篩如果是陰性的話再到現場對整體的感染風險會更小，吃飯口罩脫下來，一要交談就把口罩給戴起來，這樣其實做法是比隔板都還要來得有效。」

醫師分析，若在戶外通風處烤肉，交談時也可以戴上口罩，其實風險會比放置隔板的餐廳還要低。另外，在聚會時還要留意共用的浴室廁所空間清消，來降低感染的風險。