Voting Results Do Not Mean a Big Win for KMT: Expert 學者:九合一民進黨大敗 未必是國民黨大勝

During an Institute for National Policy Research conference on Taiwan's local elections, experts said the election results in conjunction with the low voter turnout rate equated to a no-confidence vote in the ruling DPP. Others said the DPP's massive defeat was not necessarily a big win for the KMT.

The Institute for National Policy Research recently held a conference to analyze the results of the local elections. Taiwan Cross-Strait Policy Association Chair Tan Yao-nan believes the results and the low voter turnout rate made it clear that the public is not happy with the way the DPP has handled domestic affairs including COVID-19, economic issues, and inflation.

Tan Yao-nan, Chair, Taiwan Cross-strait Policy Association: “It's very clear that people who didn't vote were making their displeasure with the DPP government's performance known. This is beyond clear. The China factor didn't really come into play in these elections.”

Chang Chia-chien, Assoc. Prof., Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies, NCSU: “(The election results) are a reflection of domestic issues and governance problems. One example is real estate prices. The (Tsai) administration has promised time and time again it will tackle this issue. We haven't seen any change.”

Chang Chia-chien says the results equate to a no-confidence vote against the Tsai administration and is a huge setback for the DPP, but its China policy wasn't necessarily a factor. Other scholars say public opinion in Taiwan is constantly flip-flopping and China may head in a new, non-military direction with its Taiwan policy down the line.

Arthur Wang, Secretary-General, Association of Chinese Elite Leadership: “There is no peace in the Taiwan Strait because Taiwan refuses unification. (China) is dealing with this causal relationship in a new way. I don't think we'll see this level of military pressure next year.”

Arthur Wang says China's long-term goal of reunification has not changed and the activities of Taiwan independence activists will continue to be blamed for worsening cross-Strait relations. At the same time, exchanges at the local level and programs like economic bonus points will be used as a "carrot and stick" approach by China to establish a framework for peace that can be used to pave the road for reunification down the line. The Taiwan sovereignty issue is one that all presidential hopefuls in 2024 will not be able to avoid.









專題|改造地獄路 台灣行人路為何難行?