Will US Bill Create Crisis in Taiwan Strait? 學者:台灣政策法案迫中加速時間表

Name: Will US Bill Create Crisis in Taiwan Strait? 學者:台灣政策法案迫中加速時間表 ｜ 公視新聞網 PNN
Uploaded: 2022-09-16T16:56:25+08:00
Description: The Taiwan Policy Act has passed a vote in a U.S. Senate committee. While it still needs approval from the U.S. Congress before it can be signed into law, experts warn that the passage of the bill cou

發布時間：2022/9/16 16:56 更新時間：2022/9/16 21:05

M. Chuang

The Taiwan Policy Act has passed a vote in a U.S. Senate committee. While it still needs approval from the U.S. Congress before it can be signed into law, experts warn that the passage of the bill could speed up China's unification process.

While some see the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee passing the Taiwan Policy Act bill as a major development, the State Department is reiterating that its Taiwan policy has not changed and the U.S. remains committed to the one-China policy.

Ned Price, US State Department Spokesperson: “The Biden administration -- we have deepened our partnership with Taiwan and we'll continue to do so with effective diplomatic, economic and military support, and we appreciate the strong bipartisan support for Taiwan that we're seeing in Congress and that we're seeing across the country.”

Former KMT lawmaker Lin Yu-fang says the bill will not lead to a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, but one expert says the bill draws Taiwan into the strategic competition war between China and the U.S. and could result in China amending its anti-secession law or passing a unification law.

Esteban Wang, Distinguished Prof., Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies, NCCU: “Let's say, hypothetically speaking, the U.S. passes the Taiwan Policy Act. Will China then legislate a unification law or a basic law in response?”

If the bill is passed, the U.S. would start providing Taiwan with military grants starting in 2027. Former DPP lawmaker Julian Kuo says this indicates the U.S. has no intention of sending actual troops to Taiwan if war breaks out. One expert says the U.S. needs to understand Taiwan and Ukraine aren't the same.

Li Da-jung, Assoc. Prof., Graduate Institute of Int'l Affairs and Strategic Studies, TKU: “Right now, the U.S. will still be selling us weapons and strengthening cooperation. However, Taiwan and Ukraine are not the same. There are many factors and considerations.”

The bill will have to be reviewed by the Senate before being sent to the House for a final version to emerge. The current session closes in January, and the bill would have to clear both bodies before it can be signed by Joe Biden. Esteban Wang says it is highly likely the bill passes.

《台灣政策法》被視為繼1979年的《台灣關係法》後，全面重整美國對台政策的法案，牽動美中台關係，因為涉及國防、外交層面，挑起中共敏感神經，堅決反對。對此，美國國務院重申對台作法沒有改變，維持一中政策。

美國國務院發言人普萊斯表示：「拜登政府努力深化與台灣的夥伴關係，未來會持續這麼做，給予台灣有效外交、經濟與軍事支持，也感謝國會對台灣的跨黨派大力支持。」

法案被解讀一方面支持台灣，也有意壓制中國。國民黨前立委林郁芳指出，不至於導致台海危機。但學者分析，法案代表美中戰略競爭進入涉台法理競爭階段，可能迫使就《反分裂國家法》進行修法，甚至端出促統的法律。

政治大學東亞所特聘教授王信賢指出：「那如果說在這種壓力底下，就是說美國也推出了《台灣政策法》的話，就是說中國大陸會不會推出一個更積極的立法，就是過去一直傳言的包括統一法或是基本法之類。」

法案要求對台提供無償軍事融資，時間就在2027年中共犯台的高風險期，民進黨前立委郭正亮解讀，這宣告美國不會出兵協助台灣。但學者分析，美國看待台灣跟烏克蘭，還是有差異。

淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所副教授李大中指出：「目前還是提供這個裝備，還有增強彼此的交流溝通，密切的緊密合作為主，但是台灣跟烏克蘭又不盡相同，所以這邊後面還是很多不同因素，複雜的考量。」

法案要通過，得送交參院審理，再經過眾院，協調出一致版本，加上屆期不連續，須在國會明年1月期滿前，參眾兩院都通過，才能交由總統拜登簽署生效。王信賢分析，美國在反中的浪潮下，法案通過的機率相當高。