Economy Will Likely Decline for Second Half of Year 金融機構預測 下半年-明年全球經濟衰退

Financial institutions around the world forecast that starting from the second half of the year utill next year, the global economy is expected to decline. Bloomberg reported that semiconductor industry is bracing for a particularly severe shift in coming months, when a record-setting sales surge is threatening to give way to the worst decline in a decade or more.

On Aug. 17, Taiwan stock opened high and closed low, with highest at 15,475, and then immediately dipped to 15,390, closed down 30 points. Bloomberg reported that the semiconductor industry may experience the most severe decline in the last 10 years due to the impact of various disadvantageous news. Semiconductor stocks, such as TSMC and Mediatek face intraday share price adjustments, dropping in the range of 0.19 percent to 0.58 percent.

Liu Pei-cheng, Director, Taiwan Industry Economics Services: “The years 2023 to 2024 will be confronted with a weaker demand side; however, the semiconductor industry probably would not fall into a 10-year adjustment period.”

Concerning the impact on the electronics industry, not only semiconductors but also notebook factories are affected by China's energy rationing measures in high temperatures. Sichuan province announced on Aug. 15 that industrial users will suspend production till Aug. 20. Furthermore, Suzhou province too once again may implement energy rationing measures. Chinese financial media CLS reported that certain Suzhou manufacturers, including Nanjing's Panda Electronics, will implement suspensions on a rotating basis for certain of its production lines. Sichuan and Suzhou are both major manufacturing bases for Taiwan notebooks. Thus, supply in the short term will be adversely affected.

Wang Rong-hsu, CEO, Marbo Securities Investment Consulting Company: “If there is a power limitation, it would lead to suspension or rotating of production. Then digesting the inventory of these parts will be further delayed.”

The high-temperature energy rationing measures by China are temporarily set for five days; however, if the high temperature continues, the rationing may also continue. By then not only will NB factories shipments be affected, but relevant electronics supply chains will also be implicated, impacting the 3rd quarter financial reports, even the 4th quarter.









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