China Will Fail in 2026 Invasion on Taiwan: US Think Tank 美智庫兵推中共2026武力犯台 失敗收場

U.S. think tank released the latest assessment concluding that a China-launched war against Taiwan in 2026 would end in failure and heavy PLA casualties, loss of two American aircraft carriers. Meanwhile, Taiwan will suffer 3,500 casualties and 26 Navy destroyers and frigates will be sunk.

The Taiwan Strait is in danger of war. China has recently launched a large-scale military exercise against Taiwan, which has worsened cross-Strait relations. U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies recently released its assessment of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan in 2026, in which the U.S. and Japan would help defend the island nation. Its assessment showed that the PLA would be defeated.

Mark Cancian, Senior Advisor, CSIS: “Although Taiwan survived as an autonomous entity, in most scenarios, losses to the United States, Taiwan, Japan, and China were enormous.”

The war game revealed that PLA naval and amphibious forces would be destroyed with 10,000 soldiers killed, and lose 155 fighter jets and 138 naval ships. The U.S. would lose two aircraft carriers, suffer 3,200 casualties, and lose 10 to 20 naval vessels. Japan would lose more than 100 fighter planes and 26 warships. Taiwan's national military would suffer 3,500 casualties, and 26 naval destroyers and frigates would be sunk. Taiwan's economy would be hit hard as a result.

Wang Ting-yu, Legislator (DPP): “The war game assessment for our Western allies, in particular the United States, suggests that if they want Taiwan to have the capabilities to resist an armed invasion, then Taiwan must have the equipment and capabilities before the war.”

The assessment pointed out that after the war, America's global status may be damaged and its navy in a mess. Experts analyzed that the U.S. would fight using its island chains and use long-range anti-ship missiles to destroy PLA naval forces, resulting in heavy losses of naval forces on both sides.

Hsu Chih-hsiang, Assistant Researcher, Institute for National Defense and Security Research: “American and Japanese air and sea combat forces would suffer quite heavily from China's long-range weapons. Many of these two countries' fighter jets could be destroyed while under the concept of island chain defense, a large number of missiles will be deployed on the so-called first island chain. So for the Chinese navy, which lacks access to deep waters, once their ships leave port, they are actually within range of anti-ship missiles. So this can be a serious blockade of Chinese naval forces.”

The war game assessment proposed four conditions to defend Taiwan. The Taiwanese army must prevent the PLA from establishing a beachhead, the U.S. can fight from Japanese bases, the U.S. has enough long-range anti-ship missiles, and Taiwan receives assistance in fully arming itself before the war. Hsu pointed out that Taiwan cannot replicate the Ukrainian model. China may implement a naval and air blockade against Taiwan, so Taiwan must stockpile a large amount of ammunition and supplies. Taiwan should actively strive for the US$1 billion of defense equipment as authorized from the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act.

台海兵凶戰危，中共近期又對台發動大規模軍演，惡化兩岸關係，美國智庫「戰略暨國際研究中心」發表最新兵推，針對中共2026年武力犯台，加入美日協防台灣，結果顯示共軍慘敗。

美國戰略暨國際研究中心資深顧問坎森指出：「儘管台灣在大多數情況下倖存下來，但對美國 台灣、日本和中國，仍造成損失慘重。」

兵推結果顯示，包括海軍、兩棲部隊被擊破，1萬名士兵陣亡，損失155架戰鬥機和138艘主要艦船，美軍慘勝還付出極大代價，有3200人陣亡、損失10到20艘大型戰艦，最嚴重的是2艘航空母艦被擊沉。日本則是損失100多架戰機、26艘戰艦。國軍有3500人死傷、海軍26艘驅逐艦和護衛艦將全被擊沉，台灣經濟重創。

民進黨立委王定宇說道：「（兵推）裡面對西方盟友，特別是美國建議說，如果你們希望台灣擁有什麼樣的能力，去抵抗武力侵略，他們必須在戰爭發生前，台灣就必須擁有這些裝備跟能力。」

兵推結果指出，美國在台海戰事結束後，恐損害全球地位，海軍狀況一團糟。」學者分析，美軍透過島鏈作戰，動用遠程反艦飛彈摧毀共艦，導致雙方海上兵力損失慘重。

國防院助理研究員許智翔表示：「包括美軍、日本，海上自衛隊的海空戰力，其實都在中國的長程武器之下，損失其實相當慘重，包括很多戰機可能在地面上被摧毀，第一島鏈國家在這種所謂的，島鏈防禦概念之下，會在島鏈上面部署大量飛彈，這對於缺乏縱深的中國海軍來講，他等於一出港，其實就在反艦飛彈射程之內，所以這個說可以嚴重的封鎖中國海軍戰力。」

至於兵推提出守住台灣的4大要素，國軍要遏制中共灘頭陣地，美國能在日本的基地作戰，並擁有遠程反艦導彈，以及在開戰前協助全面武裝台灣。許智翔指出，台灣無法複製烏克蘭模式，中共恐對台進行海空封鎖，必須儲備大量彈藥物資，而美國國防授權法案，其中，能挪用10億美元防衛物資給台灣，我方應積極爭取。