Experts Link Abnormally High Death Rate to Latent COVID Cases 死亡率兩倍於國際平均 專家示警或有潛藏病例

The Central Epidemic Command Center says it is highly likely Level 3 restrictions will be lifted on July 26. However, Taiwan's COVID-19 death rate is almost 5 percent, which is double the global rate. Domestic experts say this could indicate undiagnosed and unaccounted cases in the community or diagnoses that come too late.

The Central Epidemic Command Center says it is highly likely Level 3 restrictions will be lifted on July 26. To date, there have been 15,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Taiwan and 768 deaths. Taiwan's death rate of close to 5 percent is more than twice the global rate of 2.15 percent. Domestic experts attribute this to undiagnosed cases in the community and diagnoses coming too late.

Huang Li-min, Honorary Chair, Infectious Diseases Society of Taiwan:”How many infected people aren't even diagnosed? These people are included in the denominator. If you aren't diagnosed, the estimated death rate will be higher. Secondly, people generally wait for a day or two after they develop symptoms to see a doctor. By the time they get their diagnosis, they are already in the later stage of infection and they have a lower chance of successful treatment.”

Doctors say the fact that Taiwan's death rate remains high despite improvements in treatment and drug usage shows that many infected people don't know they are infected. Therefore, staying home, community rapid-screening, mask-wearing, and frequent hand-washing must continue after the current alert level is lifted. According to the Central Epidemic Command Center, 189,788 people in Categories 1-3 and pregnant women got their first Moderna dose between June 9 and July 9. These people can get their second dose before Aug. 6, but many people that have not gotten their first dose yet say this isn't fair and could affect community spread.

Lee Ping-ing, Advisor, Central Epidemic Command Center:”Despite the fact that our vaccination coverage rate remains less than ideal, we have controlled the epidemic extremely well and we can think about lowering the alert level. The (low) vaccination coverage rate is not a pressing issue for Taiwan. What is more urgent is getting high-risk individuals their second dose so that they are better protected.”

Doctors say the top priority should be rooting out latent carriers in the community and identifying the source of infection in unknown-source cases. If these numbers don't come down, prevention measures cannot be lifted. 

國內新冠疫情逐漸趨緩，疫苗涵蓋率也突破2成，指揮中心鬆口，7月26號解除三級警戒可能性高，但截至目前全台累計確診數共有1.5萬，768人死亡，致死率接近5%，比全球平均數2.15%高出一倍，引發外界擔憂，對此國內醫師就說，這和感染黑數多、診斷過晚有關。

台灣感染症醫學會名譽理事長 黃立民：「有多少人沒有被診斷出來，因為這些人是應該放在分母的，如果你沒有診斷出來，你就會使得死亡率高估。第二個就是我們國人，是不是都等到發病一兩天了才去看醫生。這樣其實你看到醫生再診斷的時候，基本上這個病已經進入後期了，治療效果就會變差。」

醫師認為，國內這段期間在治療、用藥上都有很大改善，致死率還是偏高，就得知道社區還有多少人感染沒被找到，未來降級後仍要加強居家、社區快篩，戴口罩和勤洗手等措施還是得做。

而指揮中心統計，6月9號到7月9號為止，已接種第一劑莫德納疫苗的第一類至第三類對象及孕婦，共計18萬9,788人，可在8月6號前接種第二劑莫德納疫苗，不過這也讓外界質疑，還有很多想打莫德納民眾根本就打不到第一劑，恐會影響解封成效。

指揮中心專家諮詢小組委員 李秉穎：「在我們目前的疫苗接種率，還不是很理想的情形之下，其實我們疫情的控制就蠻好，而且可以考慮降低第三級防疫的，我想疫苗的覆蓋率對台灣來講並不是一個急迫的問題。我們比較急迫的是

比較容易有風險接觸到病毒的人，他優先就把第二劑先打完，提高他們的保護效力。」

醫師表示，接下來最重要的指標，就是要看要看社區還有沒有可能的潛伏病毒感染，還有沒有發現不明感染源的確診病例，這種病例數如果存在的話，就不能清零，防疫就不能完全放鬆。