The US Federal Reserve plans to press ahead with its campaign of interest rate rises, even as it slows the pace of increases amid signs inflation has peaked.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the eighth time in a row by a quarter point. The market predicts that the rebound in U.S. stocks at the beginning of this year may fade away. As for the performance of Taiwan stocks on the 1st, the TAIEX index opened at 15,346 points, with an intraday low of 15,330 points. It rose 65 points at one point.
Liao En-ping, Assistant V.P., Investment Advisory Dept., President Futures: “Even if there is another interest rate hike in the first half of this year, it should be a relatively gentle increase of 0.25 percent. So the relatively tight monetary situation in the past is expected to ease. So I think Taiwan stocks still have some opportunities and room for performance for the whole first half of this year.”
The New Taiwan Dollar held the NT$30 level at the opening, but rose to NT$29.995 against the U.S. Dollar during intraday. Analysts believe that if the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to slow down interest rate hikes, the U.S. dollar will remain weak in the first half of this year, while non-U.S. currencies will have support, with a low chance of depreciating. However, Taiwan's exports declined in December last year and the entire year. The fourth quarter, which tends to be the seasonal high quarter for exports, was not the case last year. Thus, there's concern about Taiwanese exports going forward.
Chiu Chun-jung, Professor, Economics Dept., National Central Uni.: “The deterioration caused by inflation probably hurt global demand. So if we are facing a structural impact such as this, I'm afraid I'm not optimistic about our export situation in the future.”
Experts believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to fight inflation by increasing interest rates but will adapt as the situation changes.
美國聯準會，預測將在本週連續第8次升息。市場預測美股今年初反彈，恐怕會跟著消退。而台股今天表現，儘管開盤仍有1萬5346點，但盤中最低1萬5330點，一度小漲65點，似乎面臨回檔壓力。
統一期貨投顧部專業協理廖恩平分析：「在整個上半年來說，就算說後續再有升息，應該都是比較和緩的1碼這樣的方式。所以以這樣的情況來看的話，過去資金比較緊俏的狀況是可望趨緩的。所以我認為說，整個上半年來說，台股這邊是還有一些表現的機會跟空間。」
相較台股不再激情演出，1日匯市仍上演攻城戲碼。開盤緊守30元大關，不過盤中仍一度升到29.995元，一度再現2字頭。分析師認為，如果美國聯準會持續放緩升息，美元上半年將維持疲軟，而非美貨幣則有支撐力道，回貶機會低。只是，國內去年12月暨全年外銷訂單連4黑，第4季更出現「旺季不旺」，使得台灣未來出口恐怕再現隱憂。
中央大學經濟系教授邱俊榮指出：「通膨所造成分配惡化的情況，大概就使得全球的需求變得非常不好。所以如果我們面對的，是這樣的一個結構性的狀況的話，恐怕未來一段時間，甚至超過一年的時間，大概我們的整個出口的狀況都不容樂觀。」
學者認為，美國聯準會對未來經濟情勢，持且戰且走態勢，就怕降息太快，迎來通膨反撲。通膨影響需求不振的效應，恐怕會在全球持續發酵。
