Grimmest Year in History for Cross-Strait Relations 學者:兩岸關係解嚴後 今年堪稱最嚴峻

The tense cross-Strait situation was exacerbated by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August, and China blockaded Taiwan as a response. Scholars say this year has been the grimmest year for cross-Strait relations since martial law was lifted.

The cross-Strait situation remains tense, and there are no channels for communication between the two sides. The situation was exacerbated by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August, with China blockading Taiwan in response. Mainland Affairs Minister Chiu Tai-san previously expressed his hope that the relationship would thaw as soon as possible. However, scholars said this year has been the grimmest year for cross-Strait relations since martial law was lifted. 

Tso Chen-dong, Professor, Department of Political Science, NTU: “This year was the worst year for the cross-Strait relationship in history. If I have to sum up this year in one word, I would say "broken." There has been a huge rupture in the cross-Strait relationship.”

China has begun erasing the imaginary Taiwan Strait median line. Scholars said that what Taiwan has jurisdiction over has withered, resulting in a national security crisis. Taiwan is also facing a diplomatic crisis, with a mere 14 diplomatic allies left. The government is trying to participate in regional multilateral trade organizations, but scholars say its policy has clearly failed. For example, Taiwan was eager to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership to promote U.S.-Taiwan bilateral trade, but it lagged behind China in applying to join, leading people to say the government misjudged the situation. Scholars said the competition between China and the U.S. will persist and Taiwan is at the forefront of this strategic confrontation and should avoid picking a side.

Li Da-jung, Assoc. Prof., Grad. Inst. of Int'l Affairs & Strat. Studies, TKU: “There are some new bilateral dialogue mechanisms between Taiwan and the U.S., and people are asking if the ultimate goal is to sign a so-called Taiwan-U.S. BTA or FTA. The U.S. has not given a very clear answer, but the government is optimistic.”

Johnny Chiang, Legislator (KMT): “We asked if you all were sure that reinstating the length (of the compulsory military service period) to one year would be enough, if you all would be extending it further in the future, and how you all come up with one year. The minister responded that it was very simple, that laws won't need to be amended if it's reinstated to one year. I think this is absurd.”

The length of the compulsory military service period has been reinstated to one year and the government said it will start communicating with the public next year on this issue. KMT legislators said Taiwan is moving towards full recruitment and full conscription, which are tantamount to a substantial military expansion. Legislators further asked exactly how many troops Taiwan needs and said the government needs to provide a clear explanation of its overall national defense strategy and objectives.

兩岸缺乏溝通管道，美國眾議院議長裴洛西先前訪台，引發中共8月發動圍台軍演，惡化台海緊張情勢，陸委會主委邱太三曾提出希望兩岸盡早春暖花開，但學者不諱言，今年兩岸關係是解嚴後最嚴峻的一年。

台大政治系教授左正東說道：「今年我們迎來史上最糟的兩岸關係，所以我如果今年還要再下一個字，我就會下這個字叫做破，兩岸關係成為一個重大的破口。」

中共在台海建立新常態，宣稱海峽中線不存在，學者認為，我方管轄範圍實質萎縮，浮現國安危機，至於我國面臨外交困境，目前僅剩14個邦交國，政府目標參與區域多邊經貿組織。但學者分析，政策顯然跳票，尤其我方積極爭取加入CPTPP藉此推動台美雙邊貿易，卻晚中國一步申請加入CPTPP，引發外界質疑政府誤判形勢。而美中兩大強權維持競爭局面，學者認為會形成長期對抗，台灣處於美中戰略對抗的最前線，避免陷入二擇一的困境。

淡大國際事務與戰略所副教授李大中表示：「一些台美雙邊一些新的對話機制，那大家也問說，最後的目標是不是能夠簽訂所謂台美之間的BTA或是FTA，這方面其實美國並沒有給予這麼明確的答覆，但是政府是比較樂觀。」

國民黨立委江啟臣提及：「所以（兵役）恢復成1年是你們確定夠的嗎，那未來會不會再增加，你們1年怎麼算出來的，結果部長的回答是很簡單說，因為恢復成1年不用修法，這個是我認為很荒謬。」

至於兵役恢復1年，政府宣布明年會加大跟社會溝通，國民黨立委指出，台灣走向全募兵跟全徵兵等同實質擴軍，質問台灣到底需要多少兵力，認為政府需要向外界說清楚台灣國防整體戰略目標。