Pelosi's Taiwan Visit Brings Risk Premium Pressure to Asian Stocks 裴洛西訪台 為亞股帶來「風險溢價」壓力

Taiwan Stock opened low on Aug. 10 dipping below 15,000, dropping 160 points at one point. Analysts note that some of the factors include the Fed raising interest rates, foreign investments are also waiting to see whether China's military exercises will be normalized. 

At closing on Aug. 10, Taiwan Stock still teetered at "15,000." At the opening on Aug. 10, the market is once again dragged down, opening low and staying low, arriving at 14,890, dropping 160 points at one point. Securities analysts said that mainly due to the three major U.S. stock indexes closing in the black on the previous day, and the U.S.'s announcement of the July CPI on Aug. 10, coupled with the interest rate hike impact, Taiwan stock will likely face the risks of a downward trend.

Liao En-ping, Professional Manager, Capital Management Group, President Futures: “If the CPI announced at night exceeds 8.7 percent or hits close to 9 percent or more, we are certain that the Federal Reserve will maintain a fast interest hike pace, whereupon Taiwan Stock will likely weigh back to the low point in the previous wave.”

Taiwan Stock appears to have become a foreign investment ATM; as of now this year, Taiwan stock has sold nearly NT$1 trillion, hitting a historical high. Economic factors include interest rate raises and inflation. Non-economic factors include regional political tensions. U.S. House Speaker Pelosi's recent Taiwan visit triggered China's military exercises and economic sanctions against Taiwan and pressure on major business share prices, thereby bringing extra "risk premiums" pressure.

Liao En-ping, Professional Manager, Capital Management Group, President Futures: “Currently, the market is still observing whether these military exercises may become a routine, with a major one occurring every two to three months. If cross-Strait turmoil continues I believe the long-term price-to-earnings ratio for the whole of Asia will adjust downward.”

Wu Da-jen, CEO, Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development, NCU: “Our economy for the second half of the year will start to weaken. For foreign investments, they may gradually withdraw the funds out of Taiwan later this year or next year.”

Scholars note that the Taiwan Stock confidence index has been sliding downward since June and July of this year. With the current cross-Strait tensions, investors choose to observe, so transaction volume cannot increase. Further complicating this is the impact of an interest rate hike in the second half of the year; thus Taiwan Stock may be hard-pressed to rebound. 

台股昨日收盤，「萬五」仍舊站不穩。今日一開盤，再度被拉下來，開低走低，指數最低來到1萬4890點，一度跌160點。證券分析師表示，主要是前一天美股3大指數收黑，加上美國10日將公佈7月消費者物價指數，「升息」利空衝擊，台股面臨下修風險拉高。

統一期貨投顧部專業協理廖恩平分析：「在晚上公佈的CPI數字，（若）高於8.7%甚至來到9%，或是9%更多的話，可能會篤定地認為說，（美國）聯準會這邊會維持一個比較加速升息的步伐
，台股就有可能會再次回去重測前一波的低點。」

台股成了外資提款機，今年截至目前，台股賣超已將近1兆台幣，恐創歷史新高。經濟層面影響，包括升息、通膨；非經濟因素，地緣政治衝擊，尤其近期美國眾議院議長裴洛西訪台，引發中國軍演、對台經濟制裁，企業股價面臨壓力，帶來額外「風險溢價」壓力。

廖恩平指出：「目前市場還在觀望，到底這樣子的一個軍演，會不會變成常態每2到3個月，就會有一次比較大規模的軍演，（若兩岸局勢動盪）我覺得有可能在整個亞洲地區，長期的本益比會被下調。」

中央大學經發中心執行長吳大任表示：「我們下半年的這個經濟可能就會開始走弱啦，對外資來講，他有可能就是會在今年下半年，甚至到了明年，資金逐漸撤出台灣。」

學者表示，今年6、7月台股投資信心指數已不斷下滑，現在兩岸緊張局勢，更讓投資人選擇觀望，成交量能無法放大，而且下半年還有「升息」利空干擾，台股恐無力反攻。