Death Count May Continue Rising: Expert 專家警告:疫情高原期 恐讓死亡人數續增

Chen Shih-chung says the local epidemic situation has entered the "plateau phase" , which could last another one to two months. Experts are warning that the death toll could exceed 10,000 and therefore urge the government to take necessary precautions.

Taiwan's new daily case count has fluctuated around 80,000 for a full week now. Central Epidemic Command Center chief Chen Shih-chung says this means the epidemic is plateauing and numbers will not start going down for another month or two. One expert says even if the case count is plateauing, the death count may continue rising.

Huang Li-min, Honorary Chair, Infectious Diseases Society of Taiwan: “(The case count) may be plateauing, but the death count could remain as high as yesterday for another one to two weeks.”

The government reported 333 new moderate-to-severe cases on the 26th along with 104 deaths. Both numbers were new highs, and the single-day death rate was 0.12 percent. Experts say based on death rates in Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea along with Taiwan's seasonal flu death rate in 2002, the death toll from the current wave could exceed 10,000 with long-term care facilities at particularly high risk.

Su Ih-jen, Former Centers for Disease Control Director: “The efficacy of medications will be lower in seniors in their 80s and 90s. I'd estimate around 50 percent efficacy. Under these circumstances, I'd estimate (a death count) of 10,000.”

Hwang Kao-pin, Vice Superintendent of Infection Control, CMUH: “The majority of deaths are people older their 70 or 80. When elderly people get infected, any underlying conditions they already had worsen.”

Experts say death counts are lagging indicators that reflect previous infection waves as patients' conditions worsen, and the single-day death rate continuing to climb in the next week would indicate inadequate medical capacity. They are calling on the government to start making medication available to elderly patients and long-term care facility residents.

新冠本土疫情，整整一週單日新增病例數在8萬多人上下浮動，疫情指揮中心指揮官陳時中認為，這代表疫情進入高原期，而且還可能維持一、兩個月。有專家預估，高原期還可能讓死亡人數持續增加。

台灣感染症醫學會名譽理事長黃立民認為：「高原一直沒有掉，所以我們就預期說，昨天這個死亡人數呢，也會至少會維持一、兩個禮拜。」

此外，國內中重症昨（26）日新增333例、死亡104例，雙雙創單日史上新高，單日致死率為千分之1.2。專家分析，若以香港、新加坡及韓國的致死率，加上台灣2002年季節性流感的致死率來推估，台灣這波疫情的死亡人數可能會達到一萬人，尤其長照機構恐怕成為重災區。

前疾管局長蘇益仁預估：「80、90歲的老年人，我想這個投藥的效率大概會稍微低一點，我給它估計是50%的有效啦，所以這樣子的話，我估計就是1萬（死亡人數）。」

中醫大附醫感染管制中心副院長黃高彬表示：「死亡的人大部分都是年紀大的，特別是70、80歲以上的人，那因為這些人，他一感染以後，可能因為他本來潛在性的疾病，那可能會導致他惡化。」

專家強調，死亡人數是落後指標，主要是反映前一波感染高峰、重症病例惡化的結果，如果未來一週，單日致死率仍持續上升，代表醫療量能拉警報，呼籲政府應對確診的高齡長者及長照機構住民立刻投藥，才能降低重症及死亡的風險。