岸田文雄將成新首相  台日關係發展受矚 Taiwan-Japan relations under focus with new prime minister

Experts of National Policy Research anticipate no dramatic changes in the Japan-Taiwan relation and the bilateral tie between the two sides will continue strengthen.


Presenter: As Fumio Kishida is set to become Japan's new Prime Minister, many analysts believe he will continue maintaining a friendly, non-governmental relation with Taiwan, while try to be cautious and flexible when facing China.

Fumio Kishida will become Japan’s new Prime Minister. The Academia Historica posted photos of Kishida and former President Lee Teng-hui taken when the then House of Representative member visited Taiwan in 1994. Analysts are concerned about Taiwan-Japan relations after Kishida takes office. Many at the Institute for National Policy Research believe there won’t be much change as Japan is likely to continue strengthening its alliance with the US while maintain a friendly relation with Taiwan.

Tien Hong-mao, Chairperson, Institute for National Policy Research:”Japan has completely been cooperating with U.S.’ Indo-Pacific Strategy in recent years due to its own overall policy and security considerations.”

Yang Chun-chih, Professor, Department of Government & Law, Kaohsiung University:”Shinzo Abe’s policy of Pro-Taiwan will continue. U.S.-Japan Security should be the most important issue.

Scholars analyzed Kishida won the election as he had gained support from the biggest intraparty faction. Therefore, the former foreign minister and defense minister, is likely to take on a prudent approach when to US-China rivalry.”

 He previously expressed concern about the Taiwan Strait and will continue to follow the US Indo-Pacific strategy. He is expected to enhance Taiwan-Japan military exchanges and support Taiwan’s participation in the CPTPP.

Chen Wen-chia, First Deputy Head, Taiwan Society of Japan Studies:” Including the current joint British and Japanese military exercise, Kishida cares about containment and deterrence of China. Deterrence is more important. I’m more optimistic about Taiwan and Japan’s relations going forward.”

Chen believes that Kishida's stance on China and Taiwan issues are tougher than his predecessor. However, given other practical issues and economic pressure, Kishida is likely to maintain a flexible policy towards China. For example, next year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan. In addition, Beijing is hosting Winter Olympics. Japan is also expected to maintain its current policy of "actively developing non-governmental relations" with Taiwan. &&

 

 

岸田文雄將成為日本新任首相,國史館特地在臉書po出歷史照片,是1994年擔任眾議員的岸田,訪台拜會前總統李登輝,合照中岸田青澀的模樣也引起討論,而外界關注岸田上任後的台日關係如何發展,國策院多位學者認為,日本政府友台美日同盟的態勢將延續,不會有太大差異。

國策院董事長 田弘茂:「日本整體的政策跟安全上的考慮,最近幾年來幾乎是完全在配合,美國的印太戰略。」

高雄大學法政系教授 楊鈞池:「外交的問題應該會延續安倍晉三的內閣政策(友台),美日安保應該會是一個,最重要的一個議題。」

學者分析岸田當選,是日本自民黨派閥力學的結果,曾擔任外相及防相的岸田應該會在美中博弈中審慎以對,而岸田先前也表示關注台海議題,將會繼續遵循美國印太戰略,可望提升台日軍事交流,以及支持台灣加入CPTPP。

當代日本學會第一副會長 陳文甲:「包括現在英日的一個軍演,他在乎的就是一個遏制(中國),

一個嚇阻、嚇阻重於實質,我是冀望台灣跟日本,其實關係應該比較審慎樂觀的。」

陳文甲分析岸田對中國的立場和對台灣議題的態度都比菅義偉強硬,但明年是中日建交50週年與北京冬奧等現實問題,加上經濟壓力岸田對中國應該會保持靈活政策,也維持與台灣「積極發展非政府間實務關係」政策模式。

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