TIER Lowered This Year's GDP Forecast by 0.29% 台經院預測今年GDP3.81% 下修0.29%

The Taiwan Institute of Economics Research announced it has revised down its GDP forecast by 0.29 percent for this year to 3.81 percent. TIER believes that exports will slow down in the second half of the year, but the economy will still be supported by domestic consumption. 

A 4 percent economic growth rate this year is highly unlikely. The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics, the Central Bank, and various economic research think tanks have revised down their real GDP forecast for this year. The Taiwan Institute of Economics Research announced on the 25th that it has revised down this year's GDP's annual growth rate by 0.29 percent, resulting in 3.81 percent for the year. 

Sun Ming-te, Director, Macroeconomic Forecasting Center, TIER: “Exports and investments performed well in the first half of the year. Private consumption will become another economic pillar in the second half of the year. So the magnitude of our downgrade is not as big as other institutions. ”

TIER's analysis reveal that central banks around the world have started raising interest rates to combat global inflation pressure. Although global central banks have tightened their respective currencies to ease rising price pressures, prices of goods still continue to climb. The U.S. Federal Reserve will release the results from its meeting in the early morning of the 28th, Taipei time. Taiwan Central Bank Governor Yang Chin-long also announced that an extraordinary meeting may be held in order to announce possible countermeasures. 

Chang Chien-yi, President, TIER: “If the U.S. raises interest rates by 1 percent this time, I would not rule out a meeting of the Central Bank's board of directors and supervisors. Because the spread would be too big between the Taiwan Dollar and U.S. Dollar exchange rate.”

Taiwan stocks fell at the opening of the session on the 25th. The session's lowest point was at 10:40 a.m., with the TAIEX reaching 14,851 points. The TAIEX fell as much as 100 points, but pulled back again, showing great market volatility.

Liao En-ping, Assistant VP, Investment Advisory Dept. President Futures Co., Ltd.: “The bearish shorts of foreign investors and large domestic traders have trended less. It's not as pessimistic as before, with the market being super volatile. ”

Securities analysts said that Taiwan stocks needs time to consolidate. This week, the U.S. will release major economic data, including interest rates, second quarter's economic growth rate, and earnings reports from major companies. Analysts expect Taiwan stocks to stabilize next week.

今年經濟成長率「保四」不樂觀，從主計總處、央行，到各大經濟研究智庫，紛紛下修實質GDP預測。台經院25日公布預測，2022年全年實質GDP年增率，為3.81%，下修0.29%。

台經院景氣預測中心主任孫明德說明：「上半年（表現）好的是出口跟投資，那下半年的話民間消費，會變成另外一股支柱，所以我們的下修的幅度，倒沒有其它的機構來的這麼大。」

台經院分析，受全球通膨壓力影響，多國央行已啟動，升息循環與緊縮貨幣，緩解物價上漲壓力，但物價仍持續高漲。美國聯準會將在台北時間28日凌晨，發布利率決策會議結論，外界預期可能，一口氣升息3到4碼。央行總裁楊金龍也預告，必要時會召開臨時會，提出因應對策。

台經院院長張建一表示：「所以如果這次美國如果升息四碼，那我覺得不排除，會（央行）召開理監事會議啦，因為這樣子來回差太多，就是（台幣與美元匯率）利差。」

至於台股一早，開盤就下跌，截至上午10點40分，盤中最低，來到1萬4851點，一度跌近百點，但又再拉回，呈現震盪整理格局。

統一期貨投顧部專業協理廖恩平表示：「是在外資或是在這個大額交易人，他們的一個空方籌碼，其實都有一個比較明顯的趨緩的現象，其實並不像之前那麼樣子的悲觀，呈現一個震盪整理這樣的狀況。」

證券分析師表示，台股需消化，本週美國公布重大經濟數據，包括升息幅度，第2季經濟成長率，還有各大企業財報，預估下週台股表現才會趨穩。