Experts Worry Taiwan's Chip Technologies May Be Replaced 專家憂先進製程被取代 恐影響原有優勢

TSMC's first chip fabrication facility, or fab, will be operational by 2024 while the second facility nearby will make the most advanced chips currently in production, called "3 nm," by 2026. According to TSMC executives, the two plants will create 13,000 high-paying tech jobs, including 4,500 under TSMC and the rest filled by suppliers. However, some experts worry that the move might result in the loss of the currently essential role for TSMC.

TSMC Chairman Mark Liu and CEO C.C. Wei accompanied U.S. President Joe Biden to tour TSMC's new semiconductor plant in Phoenix, Arizona. Prior to the ceremony, TSMC made a statement stipulating that its U.S. plant will not only produce 5nm chips but also produce 3nm chips in the second fab. 

Chai Huan-shin, Research Analyst, Photonics Industry and Technology Development Association: “This basically means bringing the whole of TSMC league or all of TSMC's supply chain trade secrets completely to the U.S.. The supply chain's list of contact windows will all be revealed to and under U.S. control.”

TSMC Arizona's first fab is scheduled to begin production of 4nm process technology in 2024. TSMC has also started the construction of a second fab which is scheduled to begin production of 3nm process technology in 2026. The overall investment for these two fabs will be approximately NT$1.2 trillion. In Taiwan, the production of 3nm chips is already under development and is scheduled to ramp up in the second-half of this year, while the production of 2nm and 1nm chips are also in full swing planning. The Minister of Economic Affairs Wang Mei-hua emphasized that advanced technology remains in Taiwan.

Wang Mei-hua, Minister of Economic Affairs: “For 2nm, the entire territory, including Baoshan, as well as Taichung in the future, is actively promoting 1nm in Longtan Phase 3 planning.”

Nevertheless, experts point out that the U.S. semiconductor policy has always been in total support of domestic enterprises. The showdown between TSMC and Samsung will likely vanish, and with the U.S. adding fuel to the flames, Intel may emerge and surpass TSMC in the near future.

Liu Pei-cheng, Research Analyst and Director, Taiwan Industry Economics Services: “In the future, due to the large investment amount of TSMC in the U.S., depreciation cost pressure may gradually emerge.”

TSMC's share price opened low and went up on Dec. 7, closing at NT$475. Experts believe that TSMC's technology is of extreme topnotch quality, with a yield rate leading the world, thus if production cost is too high, market share may not sustain its global leading position. Competitors such as Intel will likely surpass TSMC in revenue in the future.  

台積電董事長劉德音、總裁魏哲家，陪著美國總統拜登參訪台積電在美國亞利桑那新廠。新廠移機儀式，全球媒體鎂光燈下風光亮相。而且儀式開始前，發出一紙聲明，喊出美國廠不只生產5奈米，將加碼投資，蓋二期廠，而且把先進製程技術，提高到3奈米。

光電科技工業協進會研究顧問柴煥欣說道：「不是把台積電大聯盟一起帶過去，就是把台積電的所有的供應鏈的祕密，通通都一碗端給美國的意思，供應鏈的對接窗口名單，全部都被美國掌握。」

台積電亞利桑那廠先進製程量產時程，4奈米預計2024年量產，3奈米落在2026年。兩期投資400億美金，約合台幣1.2兆。而在台先進製程，3奈米已在今年下半年進入試量產，至於更先進的2奈米、1奈米製程，已緊鑼密鼓進行中。經濟部長王美花強調，高階技術在台，沒有移轉美國的疑慮。

王美花指出：「2奈米呢，整地，包括寶山，包括未來的台中，也為1奈米積極來推動這個，龍潭3期的這個規劃。」

不過，有專家指出，美國半導體政策，就是全力扶植本土企業。過去台積電、三星兩強對決不再，在美國推波助瀾下，英特爾恐異軍突起，不久將來，甚至不排除恐超越台積電。

台經院產經資料庫研究員暨總監劉佩真表示：「未來因為台積電它在美國的這方面，投資金額相對是比較擴大的，折舊的一個成本壓力上，也會逐步的一個浮現。」

台積電7日股價於上午10時來到今日高點484.5元，終場下跌3元，收在475元。專家認為，台積電擁有技術含金量高，良率領先業界，若生產成本過高，市占率恐難以維持全球領先地位，競爭對手英特爾恐將迎頭趕上。