Next Year's Economic Growth Forecasted to Be 2.91% 預測明年經濟成長率2.91% 較今年-0.54%

The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research held a seminar on next year's economic outlook and industry trends. TIER predicted that Taiwan's economic growth rate next year will only be 2.91 percent, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points compared with this year. 

The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research held a seminar and announced its projected economic growth rate for next year. Only a 2.91 percent growth is expected, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points compared to this year.

Chang Chien-yi, President, TIER: “Exports and investments are not as good as this year. But we can expect to have good domestic demand and retail consumption because the base period of the first two years is indeed relatively low.”

TIER said that due to the gradual liberation of Taiwan's epidemic prevention and control measures, domestic consumption next year will support overall economic growth. However, domestic and foreign technology companies have lowered their capital expenditures and delayed construction of factories due to reasons such as rising inflation pressure and weakening end market demand. These factors will cause exports to slow down next year.

Chang Chien-yi, President, TIER: “U.S. interest rate policy can determine the future path of the U.S. Dollar. What will the New Taiwan Dollar do in relative terms? From the Central Bank's point of view, if the Taiwan Dollar depreciates, it will let it depreciate. But by not so much. In the past, the Taiwanese Central Bank often talked about dynamic stability.”

TIER estimates that the New Taiwan Dollar will fall to NT$31.68 against the U.S. Dollar next year, a depreciation of NT$1.68 compared to this year. It remains to be seen how fast the U.S. will raise interest rates next month.

台灣經濟研究院預測明年台灣經濟成長率不保3，只有2.91%，比起今年減少0.54個百分點，而經濟成長也會由外銷轉為內需，也就是民間消費為最大支撐。展望明年，全球經濟將延續今年下半年的疲弱態勢，加上地緣政治、金融波動等變數，經濟會呈現趨緩還是衰退，仍有許多不確定性。

台經院院長張建一表示：「主要是因為出口跟投資沒有像今年那麼好，不過內需那個部分，就是在消費那個部分可以期待。因為前兩年的基期確實是比較低。」

台經院表示受到台灣防控措施逐漸解放，明年內需消費將會支撐整體經濟成長。只是受到全球通膨壓力升高，終端市場需求疲弱，企業投資態度趨於保守，使得國內外科技大廠都下修資本支出和延後建廠，這些因素都造成明年出口力道趨緩。至於匯率方面，台經院預估，明年新台幣兌美元將落在31.68元，比今年修正後的匯率，貶值1.68元，但仍得觀察美國下個月的升息速度。

台經院院長張建一指出：「美國的利率政策就可以知道美元未來會怎麼走、台幣相對來講會怎麼走。就央行來看的話，台幣如果會貶央行也會讓它貶，但不會貶那麼（多）。就是過去我們央行常講動態穩定。」

展望2023年，台經院預估全球經濟除了延續今年下半年疲弱態勢，還得持續面臨地緣政治、金融波動等因素考驗。最後，台灣經濟會軟著陸還是硬著陸仍充滿變數。