What direction will Japan's foreign policy take in the post-Abe era? The president of the Taiwan Friends of Abe Association believes the Kishida administration will continue with Abe's foreign policies, while scholars say Japan will continue being pro-U.S. and pro-Taiwan and anti-China.
Before his assassination, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged Indo-Pacific countries to adopt anti-China policies and also moved Japan from observer to implicated party on the Taiwan issue. Will Japan's foreign policy change in the post-Abe era?
Chen Tang-shan, President, Taiwan Friends of Abe Association: “Will Kishida change anything? He has about three years and he can handle this with stability.”
Chao Tien-lin, Legislator (DPP): “Japan, it has very strong national needs and must integrate together with Taiwan, the U.S., and all countries in the Indo-Pacific region.”
The president of the Taiwan Friends of Abe Association said the Kishida administration will probably continue with Abe's foreign policies, while a legislator said Abe had three major foreign policies including forging a closer relationship with the U.S. and countering the rise of China. Nowadays, Japan is dealing with a dispute with Russia over four northern islands, the Russia-Ukraine war, North Korea, and China, including its Coast Guard Law. Scholars say Japan will continue being pro-U.S. and pro-Taiwan and anti-China.
Tung Li-wen, Advisory Committee Member, Taiwan Thinktank: “It has pledged to Taiwan that the Taiwan-Japan relationship of friendship won't change and pledged to China that its Indo-Pacific strategy won't change.”
Yeh Chien-yang, President, Taiwan-Japan Friendship Assoc. for Ind. Econ.: “If non-governmental relations are stable enough, I think this will be able to mitigate or avoid the impact of different political parties taking power.”
Political parties that support constitutional revisions won the most recent elections, showing the Japanese people support the constitutional amendments that Abe promoted during his lifetime. They include incorporating the Japan Self-Defense Forces into the constitution and strengthening security capabilities. Scholars say they are bound to antagonize China and conflict may be inevitable, but they will also show that Kishida is committed to maintaining a tough stance against China.
日本前首相安倍晉三遭槍擊不幸身亡，震驚國際社會，而安倍是印太戰略重要推手，促使印太區域國家反制中國威脅，也讓日本在台灣議題上，從旁觀者角度，變成當事人。因此，外界關切後安倍時代，日本外交政策是否有重大變化，牽動亞太地區情勢。
台灣安倍之友會會長陳唐山指出：「岸田上任這個會不會再改，因為他起碼大概有3年的時間，他可以很穩定來做這個。」
民進黨立委趙天麟說：「日本他有強烈的國家需要，必須跟包括台灣、美國以及跟印太地區的所有國家整合在一起。」
陳唐山認為，岸田政府應會延續安倍對外政策路線。立委指出，安倍過去有外交3支箭，包括堅持美日同盟、自由與繁榮的弧線等，如今岸田政府面臨跟俄羅斯在北方四島爭議、俄烏戰爭，還有北韓關係，以及中國窮兵黷武，尤其中國通過海警法威脅日本，對此學者分析，岸田政府將延續親美親台抗中政策。
台灣智庫諮詢委員董立文指出：「對台灣宣示台日關係的友好不變，對中國宣示日本的印太戰略不變。」
台日產經友好促進會會長葉建揚表示：「如果民間的關係夠穩定、夠穩固的話，我想這個可以減少或避免，因為這個政黨的更替，然後造成的衝擊。」
此外，日本修憲派大勝，顯示日本民眾支持安倍生前最想推動的修憲志業，修憲方案包含日本自衛隊入憲，強化安保能力。學者指出，勢必引發中國反感，中日衝突恐無法避免，但也代表岸田政府對中國維持強硬立場。