CHINA WILL OPEN HUGE MARKET TO US BEEF IMPORTS IN JULY|中國即將開放美牛 估3年內進口百萬噸

China is slated to begin importing beef from the United States in mid-July. Within two to three years, imports are anticipated to run to over one million tons. Chinese media reports say the country's sizable market for smuggled beef will likely feel the greatest squeeze. After the April Xi-Trump meeting, China and the United States' trade war was softened, the most notable sign of this for the consumer being the trade agreement on importing US beef. At the latest by July 16, US beef imports will be resumed, and Chinese cooked poultry meat will be imported to the US. This is one part of a 100 day plan to narrow the trade imbalance. ==WANG MING-LI Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences== After US beef imports are opened there will be a big increase in the volume of imports, we estimate in two to three years, beef imports will be up to one million tons. The US used to be China's biggest beef supplier. In 2003, after US beef and beef products were found to be contaminated with BSE import was halted. Over the last few year, Australian and Brazilian beef have filled the gap in the market. Officials said that in 2015, Chinese consumers ate 9 million tons of beef, of which 2 million were imported. Currently, 5 million tons are imported and three-quarters of this is smuggled. Pricewise, Chinese beef costs RMB 60 to 80 a kilo or around NT$260 to 350. Imported frozen beef costs around RMB 40 a kilo and smuggled meat also around RMB 40 a kilo. If US beef is imported by sea, the prices should be pushed under RMB 40 a kilo and smuggled beef will be heavily impacted. There appears to be a shortfall between consumer demand and market availability. In 2015, the total consumption of beef by Chinese consumers was worth over RMB 580 billion, or around the same amount as the smart phone market. TRANSLATED BY：CLARE LEAR 中國最晚在今年7月中旬，就要開放美國牛肉進口，估計兩三年內，進口牛肉的規模，將達上百萬噸，至少成長兩倍，有媒體指出，低價美牛對走私牛肉的衝擊比較大。 4月川習會後，中美貿易戰的疑慮逐漸消除，雙方日前達成貿易協議，中國最晚在七月16號前，就會恢復美牛進口，中國熟食禽肉則獲准在美國販賣，這是雙方同意縮小貿易失衡的百日計畫的一環 ==中國農業科學院 王明禮(音譯)== 美國進口經過今年放開以後 短期內會有一個比較大的增長 根據我們的估計 兩到三年之內 我們國家的牛肉進口總量 應該能達到1百萬噸 美國曾是中國最大的牛肉供應國，2003年底美國牛肉和牛肉產品被檢測出狂牛症後，中國對美牛祭出禁令。這幾年澳洲和巴西牛肉趁虛而入，目前中國已成全球第二大牛肉進口國。官方數據顯示，2015年中國牛肉消費量為900萬噸，其中200萬噸為進口，目前正規進口約50萬噸，走私占進口量的3/4。 價格方面，大陸國產牛肉的價格每公斤人民幣60到80元，約新台幣260到350元，進口的冷凍牛肉價格40多元，走私牛肉約40元左右。美牛如果以海運輸入，價格可能壓低到每公斤40元以下，走私牛肉顯然比國產牛肉所受衝擊更大。 不過以人均的牛肉消費來看，大陸的牛肉市場整體來說仍供不應求，2015年中國牛肉消費市場總量超過5800億，相當於中國智慧型手機市場的銷售總額。 記者 曾惠敏 報導