Scholars believed that Nicaragua leaning towards China, might be due to its economic reasons and its aim is the United States. Nicaragua's severance of diplomatic relations with Taiwan has also seen a big blow to warming Taiwan-US relations.
Daniel Ortega (2017.Jan.11), President, Nicaragua: “President Tsai is just like a sister. President Tsai of the Republic of Taiwan is here to accompany us.”
President Tsai Ing-wen was invited to attend the 2017 inauguration ceremony of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega. At that time, Ortega also called Tsai the "President of the Republic of Taiwan" and expressed his willingness to visit Taiwan. However, four years have passed and Ortega has not visited Taiwan. Former ambassador Chao Lin, who has extensive experience abroad, expressed regret and pointed out that Nicaragua's move towards China may be due to its economy.
Chao Lin, Former Ambassador to Eswatini: “Ortega is a four-term president. Therefore, the voice of the domestic opposition has been endless. He may be facing economical pressure and hoping to revive it to stabilize the people's support for him. From this perspective, is China providing some economic incentive to Nicaragua? I don't think anyone will be surprised if they are.”
Chao speculated that China has frequently interfered in Taiwan's diplomacy. Everyone is concerned about Taiwan-Honduras diplomatic relations during the Honduras presidential elections but China was able to win over Nicaragua during this period. Hsiang Chun, a scholar who has long researched Latin American relations, believes that the timing of the US Summit for Democracy is the key.
Hsiang Chun, Director, Latin American E&T Research Center, CLUT: “This is China's biggest gift to the Summit for Democracy because Taiwan was invited to participate. So China took this opportunity to show the US. I think this is a very appropriate time. Taiwan didn't work hard to maintain relations with Nicaragua.”
The long-term relationship between Ortega and the United States has deteriorated. The results of the latest Nicaragua presidential election and the announcement of US sanctions have further strained relations. Nicaragua's severance of diplomatic relations with Taiwan is undoubtedly a big blow to warming Taiwan and US relations. Chao believes that how to maintain the stability of cross-strait relations has become a top priority as China is not giving up on its suppression of Taiwan's diplomacy.
尼加拉瓜政府宣布與台灣斷交,隨即與中國建交,經驗豐富駐外經驗的前大使趙麟推測,尼加拉瓜可能因經濟,向中國靠攏,也認為尼加拉瓜此舉是針對美國而來。
2017年1月11日時,尼加拉瓜總統奧德嘉說:「蔡總統就像兄妹一樣的,台灣(共和國)蔡總統在這裡陪伴著我們。」
2017年尼加拉瓜總統奧德嘉就職典禮,總統蔡英文受邀參加,當時奧德嘉還稱呼蔡英文是「台灣共和國總統」,也曾表態願意訪台。但是4年過去了,奧德嘉還沒有實踐訪台計劃,先宣布與台灣斷交,隨即與中國建交,有豐富駐外經驗的前大使趙麟大表遺憾,並指出尼加拉瓜可能因經濟,而向中國靠攏。
前駐史瓦濟蘭大使趙麟表示:「(奧德嘉)是第四任總統,所以國內的反對派聲音一直不絕於耳,他可能在經濟方面也受到很大的衝擊,希望在尼國內部的經濟面,希望能穩定住人民對他的支持,從這個角度來看中國對尼加拉瓜是不是有些經濟方面的誘因,我想也不會出人意外。」
趙麟推測中國抵制台灣外交動作頻頻,就在宏都拉斯大選,各界關注台宏邦交之際,以聲東擊西的方式,使尼加拉瓜轉向。長期研究拉美關係的學者向駿認為,美國民主峰會的時機點是關鍵。
致理科技大學拉丁美洲經貿研究中心主任向駿說:「中國送給民主峰會最大的禮物,因為台灣受邀參加,所以趁這個機會,而且做給美國看,所以我覺得這是一個時間非常恰當,我們台灣根本就沒有很努力經營跟尼拉加瓜的關係。」
奧德嘉與美國長期關係不睦,加上這次尼加拉瓜大選結果,美國宣布制裁,雙方關係惡化的同時,尼加拉瓜宣布與台灣斷交,無疑對台美的關係升溫是一大打擊,而中國從不鬆手對台灣外交的打壓,趙麟認為兩岸關係如何維穩成了當務之急。