2018 GDP Growth Forecast to be 2.69 Percent|今年經濟成長率估2.69% 且逐季下滑

In June, President Tsai Ing-wen publicly boasted that the current performance of Taiwan's economy is the best in 20 years. However, due to the impact of the United States and China trade war, the growth of the economy is now filled with uncertainty. Currently, the forecast of economic growth this year is 2.69 percent, but is expected to decline to 2.55 percent next year.


How well is Taiwan's economy doing? In June, President Tsai Ing-wen publicly boasted that the current economic performance is the best in the past 20 years. Many legislators were not convinced, saying miscalculations were committed.

President Tsai said the economic performance hasn't been this good in 20 years. However, this year's GDP forecast is only 2.69 percent. Why is President Tsai's standard so low? It should be because the economy has been expanding for the past 20 months. It's not only about the economic growth rate. It also includes changes to the structure.

The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics has forecast this year's economic growth will decline. However, DGBAS Minister Chu Tzer-ming says the economy is gradually recovering and will rise as its structure changes.

Our economic growth rate is currently estimated to be 2.69 percent. Next year, it will be 2.55 percent. However, this does not mean we are going downhill, because the economy is still in the recovery phase.

The United States and China trade war has forced many Taiwanese businesspersons in China to return. This is a factor that will affect this year and next year's growth rate.

When predicting this 2.55 percent number, the variables produced by the return of Taiwanese businesspersons were not considered. Is there any possibility of the GDP exceeding 3 percent next year? If the GDP is to increase by 0.45 percent, that will require nearly NT$ 100 billion in investment. We will make another assessment in November.

The minister said next year's GDP forecast is 2.55 percent. However, for the growth rate to reach 3 percent, an additional NT$ 100 billion of investment will be needed, although it remains unclear where private investment will come from. The government will also need to increase its investment budget, which is also something that may be hard to achieve.