The epidemic situation is improving and CECC Commander Victor Wang has proclaimed that this wave of BA.5 infections has ended. However, experts cited Japan's experience in forecasting that Taiwan will see a mini BQ.1 wave at the end of November or beginning of December with the daily caseload at 20,000 to 30,000.
The epidemic situation is improving, and the daily caseload has been under 20,000 for four straight days. Taiwan is also progressively loosening its epidemic prevention measures. However, scholars warn that community protection began declining in October after a wave of natural infections in May and June. The overall natural protection against the BA.2 and BA.5 variants will fall to 58 percent by December. Vulnerable groups including immunocompromised people and those aged 65 and above are urged to get next-gen vaccines as soon as possible in preparation for the next wave.
Dr. Lin Ting-yu, College of Public Health, NTU: “The hospitalization rate of those who received boosters is very much lower than that of those who didn't get boosters. Boosters can further reduce the risk of death by 75 percent.”
CECC Commander Victor Wang recently proclaimed that this BA.5 wave has already ended. However, experts say Japan's experience shows that Taiwan could see a mini wave caused by the BQ.1 variant at the end of November or beginning of December. The peak may be about twice the trough of the BA.5 wave, with a daily caseload of 20,000 to 30,000.
Hwang Kao-pin, Dep. Superintendent, China Medical University Hospital: “If we look at Japan, the only difference is that their public transport network is highly developed. That means that their transmission rate will be faster than that of Taiwan. The possibility exists that there will be one wave after another caused by BQ.1.”
CECC statistics show there have already been two domestic BQ.1 cases. The variant, which is dominant in the U.S. and Europe, is highly transmissible and can evade immunity. The number of people who become infected again may increase.
新冠本土疫情趨緩，連續4天病例跌破2萬例，國內防疫措施也逐步解封。不過有學者擔憂，台灣歷經5、6月的一波自然感染潮後，社區保護力從10月起開始下降，對於BA.2、BA.5的整體自然保護力，到了12月僅剩58%。因此呼籲免疫缺乏及65歲以上長者等脆弱族群，應儘快接種次世代疫苗，以對抗下一波流行。
台大公衛學院林庭瑀博士表示：「有施打追加劑的族群，他其實住院率就已經來得比較，相對於沒有施打追加劑的來得低很多了。施打追加劑疫苗之後，它是可以再下降這個死亡風險75%的。」
雖然王必勝日前宣告，這波BA.5疫情已經結束。不過有專家指出，以日本經驗推估，台灣預計最快11月底、12月初，會再有一小波新興變異株BQ.1疫情，高點可能是BA.5疫情低點的2倍左右，等於單日約2、3萬例。
中醫大附設醫院副院長黃高彬指出：「日本來講，跟我們唯一不一樣的地方就是說，他們的大眾運輸工具相當發達，所以他們的傳播速度是會比台灣相對的快。後面會有一波，另外一波的BQ.1的這種流行，這個是有可能的。」
而根據指揮中心統計，目前國內已有2例BQ.1本土病例。專家提醒，歐美流行的BQ.1變異株不僅傳播力較高，也具免疫逃脫特性，重複感染人數恐怕會再增加，因此還是要多注意防護措施。