Local COVID-19 infection has entered a plateau period. According to the latest statistics from the Central Epidemic Command Center, the current national infection rate is about 9 percent, and this wave will peak when the rate reaches about 10 percent. Expert also believes, at the end of the month, we can begin to adapt influenza surveillance system to COVID-19.
The local COVID-19 epidemic has reached a plateau with cases at a high but stable level. According to the latest statistics from the Central Epidemic Command Center, the national infection rate is about 9 percent, and 10 percent to 15 percent in Northern Taiwan. It is estimated that this current epidemic wave will reach peak when the national infection rate reaches 10 percent. Some public health experts said that in fact, the confirmed infection curve has been declining and 100,000 new cases per day will not occur again. They recommend that COVID can be treated as flu by the end of June.
Chen Hsiu-hsi, Professor, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University: “Based on community level primary care, people should self-monitor and designated physicians should provide community-based care to mild and asymptomatic patients. The community's immune protection plan should treat this like flu.”
However, some doctors have a conservative view. They believe that the epidemic is still at a high point and may last for one to two weeks before it gradually declines. Moreover, there are new mutant strains appearing abroad, so the current epidemic wave will not end too early and it may last until the end of this year, or even early next year.
Huang Li-min, Honorary Chairperson, Infectious Diseases Society of Taiwan: “The reason why we think this wave will last until the end of the year is that a mutant strain will probably enter Taiwan. It is unlikely that a mutant strain will not enter Taiwan. What if the mutant strain enters Taiwan? It means our original immunity has basically disappeared and we need to start all over again.”
Experts emphasized that we should focus on how to reduce the number of moderate and severe cases, early diagnosis, and early administration of drugs. The public is worried the epidemic may heat up again after the Dragon Boat Festival. Experts suggest that people abide by epidemic prevention regulations, avoid going to crowded places, and face the epidemic normally during the holiday.
新冠本土疫情仍處於高原期，根據疫情指揮中心最新統計，全國染疫率約9%，北北基桃則達10%到15%，並推估全國染疫率達10%，可能是這波疫情高點。對此有公衛學者表示，其實疫情曲線已經在下降了，單日新增10萬例本土情況不會發生，建議6月底就可以把新冠肺炎當成流感化來監測。
台大公衛學院教授陳秀熙表示：「以社區基層醫療為主的這樣的一個民眾，自我監測跟定點醫師的這樣的社區定點照護，來反映這個輕症跟無症狀，它的社區的免疫保護力就像流感一樣。」
不過有醫師看法較保守，認為疫情在高點，可能會持續1到2週，才會逐漸下滑，而且國外又有新的變異株出現，所以疫情不會太早結束，也可能一路拖到今年底、甚至明年初。
台灣感染症醫學會名譽理事長黃立民分析：「我們認為會拖到年底的原因，就是因為變異株應該是會進台灣，不太可能變異株不進台灣，那一旦變異株進台灣，等於是原來的免疫力，基本上就消失了，又重來一次。」
專家強調，現在要關注的，是如何讓中重症個案下降，及早確診、及早投藥是很重要的關鍵；至於接下來的端午節連假，外界憂心，連假過後、疫情恐怕又升溫，對此專家建議，連假時還是要遵守防疫規定，避免到人潮擁擠的地方，平常心面對即可。