US Fed May Raise Interest Rates by 0.5% 美Fed本月恐再升息2碼 市場預期迅升溫

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday reaffirmed his message of higher and potentially faster interest rate hikes, but emphasized that debate was still underway, with a decision hinging on data to be issued before the United States central bank's policy meeting in two weeks. 

The Fed released a hawkish statement a few days ago, suggesting that interest rates may be raised by 0.5 percent for March. As the U.S. Dollar index consolidated, other global currencies have taken a dive. Although the NTD appreciated in the morning of the 9th, it still dropped later during the day, with a low of NT$30.82 to the U.S. Dollar.

Hsieh Chen-yen, Financial Expert: “If there is still net inward remittance of foreign capital, I don't think the Taiwan Dollar will have a large depreciation. It should maintain around this NT$31 mark.”

U.S. stocks stabilized on the 8th after Powell's comments. Although Taiwanese stocks started off strong on the 9th, the TAIEX Index quickly retreated, reaching the lowest intraday mark of 15,783 points. Will the Taiwan Central Bank follow suit and raise interest rates at its board meeting on the 23rd? 

Wu Meng-tao, Director, 6th Research Div., TIER: “It looks like there are strong economic headwinds this year. If the Central Bank raises interest rates, it will definitely depress consumption and investments. I think there is a relatively high possibility the Taiwan Central Bank does not follow and raise interest rates.”

Experts believe that there is a high probability that the Taiwan Central Bank will not follow and raise interest rates due to the country's efforts to shore up its economy. 

日前美國聯準會放出鷹派消息，暗示3月可能升息2碼，美元指數跟著轉為盤整，許多非美貨幣下跌。9日的新台幣兌美元早盤雖然一度止貶回升，但升幅收斂又回貶，一度下探到30.82元。

財經專家謝晨彥表示：「外資如果還是維持一個淨匯入的狀態，我倒不會認為台幣會出現再更大的一個貶值的幅度，大概應該維持在這31元附近做一個震盪。」

隨著美國聯準會鮑爾8日放鷹態度軟化後，帶動美國指數回穩，9日台股一度走強，後來又漲勢收斂，盤中最低一度來到15783點。只是美國聯準會升息步調可能轉鷹，央行23日登場的首季理監事會議，會不會跟進升息？根據大型行庫財務部主管表示，台灣有升息壓力但缺乏實力。

台經院研究六所所長吳孟道指出：「今年看起來經濟是有很強烈的逆風存在，在這種狀況之下如果央行去升息，一定又會去壓抑到消費跟投資的這樣的一個力道，我是覺得我們的央行基本上不跟進升息的一個可能性會比較大。」

學者認為，碰上台灣力拚經濟復甦等原因影響，央行不跟進升息的機率很高，不過得留意不升息的後遺症，恐怕換來台幣的資金出走潮。