U.S. stocks surged after the Federal Reserve announced another quarter of a percentage point raise and slowing down on the pace of increases. Taiwan's stock market took off as well, with the NT dollar strengthening against the U.S. currency.
The Federal Reserve raised its interest rate a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday the 1st, as inflation eased somewhat but remains elevated. How does that affect Taiwan?
Wang Mei-hua, Minister, MOEA: “If you take a look at the attitude of coming back to work and how the stock market is doing after the long break, it shows that people are quite confident about Taiwan's economic development in the near future. The Ministry of Economic Affairs will continue to support and push Taiwan's industries forward.”
U.S. stocks jump after the Fed announced smaller rate hikes to tame inflation. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose above 5 percent and the Taiwan stock market picked up its momentum soon after. The TAIEX index opened at 15,508.83 points on the 2nd, with an intraday high of 15,571.14 points. It rose 151 points at one point. With Taiwanese shares rising and foreign fund inflowing, the NT dollar is going strong against the U.S. dollar. It opened at NT$29.9, made its way through NT$29.9 and NT$29.8, and rose to NT$29.6 against the U.S. dollar during intraday. The exchange rate hit a nearly 8-month high since June of 2022.
Li Chi-chan, Foreign Exchange Analyst: “The NT dollar will remain slightly stronger against the U.S. dollar as long as the rate hikes are in smaller increments. This situation is unlikely to reverse during the first half of the year, at least not before the second quarter.”
Li Yung-nien, VP, Chi Far Securities Investment Consultant Co., Ltd.: “If the U.S. stock market continues to do well, then first of all, the NT dollar would continue to do well. It would also continue to attract foreign investment, which would greatly encourage Taiwan's stock market. However, if the U.S. stock market suffers from a bad rebound, it would stir up the Taiwan stock market again.”
Financial experts predict that the U.S. dollar will remain weak, while non-U.S. currencies will remain strong, and the Taiwan stock market is expected to perform well during the first quarter of 2023.
全美通膨持續走緩，美國聯準會一如外界預期，宣布升息1碼，繼續放緩升息腳步，外界關注台灣如何因應。
經濟部長王美花表示：「不管是開工的情形，還是這個股市的開市的情形，應該是大家對台灣的景氣是有信心的，經濟部會持續來推動，我們整個產業這樣的發展。」
隨著美國放緩升息，激勵美股收紅，其中，費城半導體指數大漲超過5%，接連帶動台灣股匯齊揚。2日台股繼續上攻，開盤15508.83點，盤中最高15571.14點，一度漲151點。隨著台股走升，加上外資回流，新台幣兌美元匯率同步勁揚，以29.9元開盤後，匯價持續走強，火速闖過29.9元和29.8元兩道關卡，盤中更一度攻破29.6元，一度大漲超過3角，創下2022年6月以來、近8個月的新高紀錄。
外匯分析師李其展表示：「台幣會表現更強一點，美元弱一點，在這個政策基調有改變之前，可能美元表現都會偏弱，例如在上半年或者至少在第2季前，可能轉折機率都不高。」
啟發證券投資顧問公司副總李永年指出：「如果美國股市能夠續漲的話，那麼第1點，對於這個台幣的升值是有幫助的，然後也會吸引外資再持續地回流，這樣對我們台灣股市會造成相當大的激勵作用。可是反過來講萬一美國股市在短線上又出現一個，比較嚴重回檔走勢的話，我們台灣股市恐怕又要再度地陷入一個整理的格局。」
專家預測，接下來美元將持續走弱，吸引外資回流，其他非美貨幣表現強勢，而台股可望到第1季，維持震盪走高格局。
