Major stock markets around the world are plummeting, after the European Central Bank and Bank of England both announced to raise interest rates by half a percentage point, adding to worries over high inflation, and a slowing economy.
The U.S. Federal Reserve approved an interest rate hike of 0.5 percentage points, signaling further rate hikes next year. The Frankfurt-based European Central Bank and Bank of England both followed suit with hikes of 0.5 percentage points.
Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank: “The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points. And based on the substantial upward revision to the inflation outlook, we expect to raise them further.”
Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England: “We expect inflation to start falling more rapidly, probably from the late spring onwards. But there is a risk that it won't happen in that way, particularly because the labour market and the labour supply in this country is so tight. ”
The European Central Bank is forecasting lower inflation rates in 2023. In the U.K., inflation hit a 41-year high of 11.1 percent in October before falling slightly to 10.7 percent in November. The Bank of England doesn't expect inflation levels to return to normal until early 2024. One market analyst says high inflation historically leads to falling economic indicators, and the world is already in a recession with further layoffs and rising unemployment rates ahead.
Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist, CFRA Research: “I do think that we are headed for recession. History says that when we've had inflation this high, when we have seen year-on-year reductions in leading economic indicators and we have fallen into an earnings recession, and I think that is an increasing possibility that we have then fallen into an economic recession. ”
European stocks tumbled in response to the rate hikes, with German and French stock markets falling 3 percent and the Dow Jones plunging 787 points and the three major U.S. indexes closing 2 percent down. The TAIEX also fell over 250 points upon opening, with TSMC's share price falling NT$15. The New Taiwan dollar to U.S. dollar exchange rate also fell over 10 cents early in the day.
在美國聯準會，14日決定升息2碼，並暗示明年的利率還會更高後，總部設在德國法蘭克福的歐洲央行，還有英格蘭銀行，15日都決定跟進升息2碼。
歐洲央行總裁拉加德宣布：「決策委員會今天（15日）決定，將歐洲央行的3個關鍵利率提高0.5％。基於對通膨的前景大幅向上修正，我們預期還會進一步上調利率。」
英格蘭銀行總裁安德魯百利也表示：「我們預期通膨率會開始快速下降，可能從明年春末開始。但這存在著不發生的風險，特別是因為我國勞動力市場和勞動力供應非常緊迫。」
不過這次升息幅度，都比前一次11月的3碼來得小。因為歐洲央行預期，通膨率將在2023年開始下降；英格蘭的通膨率，在10月達到41年新高的11.1％後，11月緩降到10.7％，英格蘭央行預估，要等到2024年初才會回歸正常水平。市場分析師認為，升息導致經濟數據疲軟，接下來恐怕會看到公司裁員開始、失業率攀升，經濟陷入衰退。
市場分析師斯托瓦爾指出：「我確實認為我們正在走向衰退。歷史證明，當我們的通膨率如此高、當我們看到經濟領先指標逐年下降且陷入盈餘衰退時，我認為我們隨後陷入經濟衰退，可能性越來越大。」
受到升息、加上投資人憂心經濟衰退，歐洲主要股市收黑，法蘭克福和巴黎股市，跌幅超過3％；美股連兩天走跌，道瓊工業指數盤中一度重挫787點，三大指數收盤下跌超過2％。
