China on a Faster Timeline for Reunification of Taiwan: Blinken 習喊不放棄武統 布林肯示警「北京加快統一」

In regard to the 20th National Congress, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Beijing will be pursuing reunification on a much faster timeline while some other political experts analyzed that China would not be in a hurry in the near future to carry out reunification from an economic perspective. 


During a talk with former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Monday, Oct. 17, current U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken pointed out that China has changed its approach and is now pursuing "reunification" on a much faster timeline, even at the cost of using coercion or force. 

Anthony Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State: “We've seen a very different China emerge in recent years under Xi Jinping's leadership. It is more repressive at home, it's more aggressive abroad, and in many instances that poses a challenge to our own interests, as well as to our own values.”

Blinken also mentioned the semiconductor industry, saying that if Taiwanese production of semiconductors was disrupted by Chinese military actions, there would be an economic crisis around the world. Blinken stated the importance of using peaceful means to resolve differences in the Strait since the stakes are high for the U.S., and this is the reason for heavy U.S. engagement in the region. However, Anthony Saich, professor and director of Ash Center from Harvard Kennedy School, said during his visit to Taiwan that from a regional economic perspective, Chinese President Xi Jinping is not in a hurry to annex Taiwan in the near future.

Anthony Saich, Director, Ash Center, Harvard Kennedy School: “Any forced reunification with Taiwan is not possible in the near future. I don't think there is any intention, I don't think that. I think the Chinese leadership realizes it is impossible.”

Philip Hsu, Director, Center for China Studies, National Taiwan University: “If he (Xi Jinping) thinks that he has made an historic achievement in firmly advancing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts, then maybe he is not in a hurry to reunify Taiwan.”

Political Science professor Tao Yi-feng from the National Taiwan University analyzed that China's economy is still in a slump so they cannot easily carry out a war in the next five to ten years. Tao thinks the timeline for reunification would get extended, and that China would probably conduct disinformation campaigns first to influence public opinion towards the presidential election in 2024. 

 

 

中共二十大召開之際,美國國務卿布林肯與前國務卿萊斯進行對談,近來台海局勢受到關注。布林肯表示,看到習近平正帶領中國朝更加激進的方向邁進,示警北京決心加快統一時間表,不惜以武力手段來實現。

美國國務卿布林肯指出:「在習近平的領導下,近年來出現了一個非常不同的中國,對國內更具壓制性,對國外則更具侵略性,在許多情況下這對我們自己的利益和價值觀構成了挑戰。」

布林肯也提到半導體,表示如果台灣生產晶片因危機而中斷,世界各地就會爆發經濟危機,因此維持台海和平穩定,確保和平解決兩岸分歧,對美國來說相當重要。不過來台訪問的哈佛大學教授認為,從區域經濟角度分析,認為習近平不急著統一台灣。

哈佛大學甘迺迪學院艾什中心主任Saich指出:「短時間之內統一台灣是不可能的,我沒看到有這種意圖,我認為中國領導層也知道這是不可能的。」

台大中國大陸研究中心主任徐斯勤表示:「如果他(習近平)自己已經認為說,他已經完成了這個歷史的定位,已經完成了所謂的中華民族偉大復興的話,那麼也許統一台灣不是那麼迫切的事情。」

台大政治系教授陶儀芬也認為,雖然習近平喊出反獨促統,但中國經濟狀況不佳,未來5到10年也不能夠很輕易打一仗,認為武統時間表會延後,目前應該先會以假訊息等方式影響2024大選,拋出戰爭與和平選項。


 

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