Analysts Forecast Possible Depreciation to NT$31 台幣今貶1.15角 分析師:有機會貶至31塊

The US Dollar has been showing an unstoppable trend,  adding downward pressure on regional currencies. New Taiwan Dollar, as many believe, may breach the NT$31 threshold even before the next Fed interest rate hike.

The recent three consecutive depreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar has caused the NTD to the USD exchange rate to break the NT$30.5 line of defense, fast approaching NT$31. Even though the Central Bank announced on Sept. 5 that it has not relinquished control to allow NTD to depreciate and will intervene to adjust, the NTD to the USD exchange rate on Sept. 6 opened with a rise then dropped, while the drop range increased intraday, depreciating below NT$30.8.

Chen Yo-chung, Foreign Exchange Analyst, Taishin Bank: “The FED will lift the interest rate again on Sept. 21, whereas we will at most increase from 0.125 percent to 0.25 percent. Before Sept. 21, we may see NTD against USD at NT$31.”

However, foreign exchange analysts forecast that the Central Bank will hold its grounds at the NT$31.74 threshold, last seen in 2019 during the "U.S.-China Trade War" 

Chen Yo-chung, Foreign Exchange Analyst, Taishin Bank: “The trade surplus in July is approximately US$5 billion, so there shouldn't be too much room for large depreciation, and the NTD should not reach NT$32 that fast; likely will stay above NT$31.74.”

As the withdrawal of global funds and depreciation of the NTD continue to affect Taiwan Stock, the market reached 14,789 at one point, with a small rise intraday of 30 points. However, after 11 a.m., it immediately declined. Securities analysts note that the insufficient trading volume of Taiwan Stock may not hold the 14,000 threshold.

Liao En-ping, Professional Associate, Securities Investment Department, President Futures Co.: “The Taiwan Stock monthly and quarterly moving averages continue to decline, and it can only be resolved by an increase in trading volume. Given the severe inflation in the U.S. as well as the rising inflation in Europe, if the Central Bank speeds up its interest lift, the TAIEX may once again break the bottom.”

Analysts said that while the U.S. inflation slowed down, European inflation is a time bomb that may explode in Q4. If the interest rate hike cycle continues, global funds will keep withdrawing from the market, and Taiwan Stock may face substantial pressure.  
 

近期台幣連3貶，台幣兌美元匯率已突破30.5元防線，向31塊步步近逼。雖然央行5日公佈沒放手讓台幣貶值，會進場調節，不過，6日台幣兌美元匯率開盤先升後貶，盤中貶值幅度不斷擴大，一度貶破30.8元。

台新銀行外匯分析師陳有忠分析：「9月21日美國Fed會升息嘛，像我們頂多就是半碼到一碼，21日以前來講，台幣是有機會看到31塊。」

不過，外匯分析師預測，2019年31.74元防線，當時美中貿易戰最大利空，這次央行會守住。

台新銀行外匯分析師陳有忠指出：「7月份的話，貿易順差還有50億（美金）順差喔，不至於有大幅貶值的空間啦，應該不會那麼快就到32（塊），相對會守在31.74元以前。」

資金撤離，台幣不斷貶值，衝擊台股。早盤最高來到1萬4789點，盤中一度小漲近30點，不過11時後就隨即反轉向下。證券分析師表示，台股量能不足，萬四關卡恐怕守不住。

統一期貨投顧部專業協理廖恩平分析：「台股的月線跟季線都是持續的一個下壓，這兩道重壓仍然是需要量能去化解，美國的一個通膨狀況，歐洲的通膨狀況壓不下去，央行加速升息的話，或許是有再破底的可能。」

分析師表示，美國通膨趨緩，但歐洲通膨未爆彈可能第4季引爆，若升息循環持續，資金恐持續撤離，下半年台股反彈壓力大。