US Fed Expected to Make 'Hawkish' Adjustment 美聯準會政策會議將登場 估升息2-3碼

With interest rates expected to go up this week after the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting on June 14, analysts expect Taiwan's Central Bank to convene a board meeting on June 16 to follow suit and hike interest rates from 0.125 to 0.25 percentage points. In response to the forecasts, the Taiex plummeted 350 points upon opening on June 13.


Wu Meng-tao, Research Division VI Director, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research: “The Central Bank will probably increase interest rates by at least 0.25 percentage points.”

After the Central Bank hiked interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in March, experts predicted further hikes were coming. The Central Bank will convene a board meeting on June 16 as it looks to combat surging inflation and narrow the interest rate gap.

Wu Meng-tao, Research Division VI Director, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research: “The U.S. Fed's moves to suppress inflation probably mean an interest rate hike of at least 0.5 percentage points. To keep the interest rate gap from growing larger, (Taiwan's) Central Bank will probably be more hawkish this time around.”

Experts say the U.S. will make the first move during "Central Bank Super Week" with an interest rate hike of 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points. The scale of the Fed's hike will be a benchmark for Taiwan's Central Bank, but experts don't expect a hike of more than 0.25 percentage points.

Wu Meng-tao, Research Division VI Director, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research: “The interest rate of (domestic banks) is under 2 percent right now, so overall it's not having a big impact on consumer prices. The focus is more on mortgages. People don't take out loans to buy everyday things.”

After the Dow's major setback on June 10, the Taiex plummeted 350 points upon opening on the 13th, at one point falling close to 400 points. 

Winson Wang, Financial Analyst: “The pressure is coming from foreign investors and electronics and weighted financial stocks. There may be major adjustments today, but we haven't seen a "stop falling" signal.”

Experts say this year's consumer price index will be around 3 percent this year with inflationary pressure remaining high.

 

 

 

央行繼今年3月升息1碼後,學者鐵口直斷,還會再升息。6月16日理監事會,除了考量通膨因素,主要是美國大幅升息,台幣、美元「利差」不能無限擴大。

台灣經濟研究院六所所長吳孟道分析:「美國聯準會這次壓抑通膨,所以我覺得它的升息空間,我覺得2碼看起來跑不掉,那這樣又會加劇台美利差,這樣的一個因素,(我國)央行這一次在整個升息的立場,我覺得就會比較鷹派一點。」

學者表示,本週是「超級央行週」,美國聯準會先登場,外界預測依舊是「鷹派」升息,幅度可能2到3碼。接著央行召開理監事會,美國升息幅度將是參考指標。不過學者認為最多升息1碼,影響族群有限。

吳孟道說:「(國內銀行放款)目前的利率都還在2%以下,整體來講對消費的壓抑力道差異性不會太大,房貸族為主啦,很少說就是我平常日常消費,真的會去貸款做消費。」

升息因素上週五美股重挫,今(13)日台股一開盤立即反應,暴跌350點,跌勢持續擴大,一度跌近400點,面臨「萬六」保衛戰。

證券分析師王榮旭表示:「賣壓都是來自於電子金融權值型的股票,很多外資的一個操作,今天恐怕會大幅調節台股,短線來看的話,還沒有止跌的一個訊號。」

學者預測今年「消費者物價指數」落在3字頭,物價壓力仍大,加上美國大幅升息,今年央行升息力道,恐怕將逐步轉強。

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