If Russia and Ukraine Go to War, US Would Get Hit Strongly 鎳.鈀.氖出口重鎮 俄烏若交戰美衝擊最大

Russia-Ukraine tension could exacerbate the global chip shortage as well as the price hike of your kitchen countertop. As Ukraine is an important producer and exporter of precious metal, including nickel, neon and one of the rarest metals called palladium. If the two countries go to war, experts said the U.S. would be hit hardest. The supply chain of kitchenware will also be affected.

Stainless countertops are used in the kitchen, and nickel is one of the heavily present elements in stainless steel. It takes up about 8 percent. Kitchenware and appliance sellers shared their concern over the disruption of the supply chain as a result of the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, two key suppliers of raw materials.

Tsao Chia-hao, Sales Representative, Kitchenware Buying Agent: “Stainless steel is galvanized iron, with 18 percent of chromium and 8 percent of nickel. I believe if the production of nickel gets affected, its price would also go up.”

Lots of products use nickel. Electronic devices such as computers and cell phones contain nickel. Medical devices such as surgical knives and other medical equipment contain nickel as well. Nickel comes mainly from Russia, and Russia supplies about 49 percent of the world's nickel. Various companies have started looking for alternative material sources.

Chu Chun-tzu, Secretary, Kitchenware Buying Agent: “Japan is ahead in its technique. Although nickel cannot be entirely removed from kitchenware and appliances, its percentage has been reduced.”

Russia also produces precious metal palladium. Palladium is used in sensors and flash memory devices, and Russia supplies about 42 percent of the world's palladium. Ukraine produces noble gas neon, which is critical for the lasers used to make chips and aligners. Ukraine supplies as high as 90 percent of the world's neon.

Liu Pei-chen, Director, Survey and Statistics Center, TIER: “Even if a war doesn't happen, simply a sanction placed on the U.S. by Russia is enough to make an impact on the U.S. semiconductor supply chain. Potential material disruptions would result in a broken supply chain.”

Experts further said if Ukraine should go to war with Russia, the U.S. would get hit strongly because of the country's heavy dependence on the eastern European countries for their metals and noble gases for its semiconductor industry. The Ukraine-Russia situation has limited effect on Asia, and Taiwan has other sources of these raw materials. However, worldwide chip shortages would likely be prolonged and Taiwan's semiconductor sector may still need to find new solutions to the supply chain problem if the Ukraine-Russia situation continues to impede exports. 

 

廚房流理台，選用的是304不鏽鋼材質，不過製程內含有許多貴金屬，其中鎳含量約8%。廚具業者表示，如果烏俄開戰，產品供應鏈多少會受到影響。

廚具代理商業務員曹家豪指出:「它是本身是白鐵，但是它是有混合18%的鉻，然後跟8%的鎳的材質，去做合成一種不鏽鋼，鎳的那個產量，如果有受到影響的話，我相信它的價格也會受到影響。」

其實含有鎳金屬的產品，不在少數，電子產品，電腦、手機都會用到鎳，還有醫療器材材，像是手術刀、醫療設備等也含有鎳金屬，而這些鎳來源國多數來自俄羅斯，出口全球佔比約49%。因為稀少加上有獨佔性，所以不少業者開發新技術，尋找替代金屬。

廚具代理商秘書朱珺嬨表示:「日本在這一塊，它們的技術表現比較先進，雖然他們已經，就是鎳雖然沒有辦法完全去除，但是我們已經把比例稍微放低了。」

有專家分析，世界上最稀有的貴金屬鈀，可用於記憶體感測器，以及儲存型快閃記憶體，也來自俄羅斯，約佔全球產量42%。而化學氣體氖，運用在製造晶雷射 ，以及半導體曝光、蝕刻製程，來自烏克蘭，而且全球佔比，高達9成。

台經院產經資料庫總監劉佩真表示:「即便戰爭沒有發生，如果俄羅斯對於美國來進行相關的一個制裁，會影響到美國半導體供應鏈相關所要獲取的金屬，相對就會比較有斷鏈上的一個疑慮。」

學者表示，烏俄一旦開戰，其實影響最大的美國，主要是美國半導體製程，金屬原料或化學氣體，都來自這兩個國家，亞洲產商影響較小，不排除會有轉單效應。不過，全球供貨減少，全球晶片荒勢必加劇，相關產品供貨延遲問題雪上加霜。