Indigenous Submarine to Be Delivered in 2023? 國造潛艦2024完工? 黃曙光:有望提早

The Ministry of National Defense has spent NT$49.3 billion to develop indigenous submarines. During a recent interview, former Chief of the General Staff Huang Shu-kuang said the detailed design of the first submarine has been completed and the launch could take place in September 2023.

The Ministry of National Defense has spent NT$49.3 billion to develop and build the prototype of the first indigenous submarine. Work began at the end of 2020, and there were expectations that it would be launched in 2024. In a recent interview, former Chief of the General Staff Huang Shu-kuang said the detailed design of the first submarine has been completed, and the submarine is being equipped. The builder is working against the clock on the pressure hull. He said the submarine may be delivered three months ahead of schedule in September 2023. Scholars say there are two reasons for the early delivery. One is that the work pace is faster than anticipated. The other is that China is expected to deploy its third aircraft carrier by 2025.

Su Tzu-yun, Director, Div. of Defense Strategy & Resources, INDSR："Admiral Huang understands the related technology. China is expected to deploy its third aircraft carrier in 2025. If Taiwan's indigenous submarine can be delivered ahead of schedule, it will have a big effect on this asymmetric warfare."

If tests and evaluations of the submarine proceed smoothly, then a plan to mass-produce eight to 12 more in batches in 2024 can be launched. The US recently conjectured that the People's Liberation Army may attack Taiwan in 2027. Military expert Su Tzu-yun said the date is significant as it is the centennial of the PLA's founding and the PLA's military power projection should be more complete by then, perhaps even enough to start regional wars. Taiwan's military uses asymmetric warfare to compete, and submarines will play an important role in the Taiwan Strait in the event of war.

Air Force Broadcast："This is a Republic of China Air Force broadcast directed at the People's Liberation Army aircraft located at an altitude of 3,000 meters in Taiwan's southwest airspace. You have already entered our ADIZ and are affecting our flight safety. Turn around and leave immediately."

A Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan's southwest airspace around 8:30 a.m. on July 22, and the Air Force broadcast a message to order it to leave. Statistics compiled by military enthusiasts show that Chinese military aircraft have entered Taiwan's airspace on 12 days so far this month.

國防部投入493億元，打造第一艘國造潛艦原型艦，去年底開工，潛艦是否能在2024年如期下水，一直是外界關注焦點，對此，前參謀總長黃曙光日前透露最新進度，已完成首艘潛艦細部設計，裝備陸續到位，正在趕工壓力船殼，甚至喊出提早3個月，朝向2023年9月下水的目標努力，學者分析有2大原因，分別是造艦進度超乎預期，以及應對中國第三艘航母，可能在2025年成軍。

國防院國防戰略與資源研究所所長 蘇紫雲表示：「黃上將，他可以就是對於相關的技術掌握，特別是中國的第三艘航艦，預估會在2025年成軍。台灣的國造潛艦，如果可以提前的話，對於這種發揮不對稱戰力，當然是非常有效果的。」

潛艦原型艦若是海試及測評順利，有望在2024年提出後續8到12艘的量產計畫，分批次生產，至於美軍示警，共軍恐在2027年攻台，蘇紫雲認為有指標意義，包括中共解放軍成軍百年，屆時共軍兵力投射更完整，足以發動區域戰爭，我軍用不對稱作戰抗衡，潛艦在台海作戰扮演重要角色。

空軍廣播：「中華民國空軍廣播，位於台灣西南空域，高度3000公尺的中共軍機注意，你已進入我ADIZ，影響我飛航安全，立即迴轉脫離。」

至於共軍22號早上8點半左右，派遣軍機進入我西南空域，空軍實施廣播驅離，根據軍事迷統計，共機本月已進入我空域12天。