Scholars Speculate on Biden’s China Strategy 學者:美將延續印太戰略 美中關係回不去

Joe Biden's inauguration has raised doubts on whether he will continue his predecessor's policies towards China. Some observers believe that human rights issues remain a thorn in their bilateral relationship, which is also evident in the fact that Biden has not spoken to Xi since his election victory.


Joe Biden has taken office, and it remains to be seen what he will do with his predecessor’s Indo-Pacific strategy of opposing China and cozying up to Taiwan. His response will determine the future development of the U.S.-China-Taiwan relationship. Local scholars believe that although there is room for improvement in the U.S.-China relationship, Biden won’t completely overthrow the current Indo-Pacific strategy. His appointment of veteran diplomat Kurt Campbell as the “Indo-Pacific coordinator” may be an indication of his future direction.
B
iden won’t completely overthrow Trump’s China policy, which includes the Indo-Pacific strategy. The term “Indo-Pacific” will continue to be used. What’s more important is the creation of an Indo-Pacific coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs.
 
The U.S.-China relationship sank to a new low over the trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic. Biden has not spoken with Chinese leader Xi Jinping since being elected. The two countries have also clashed over the South China Sea, making it hard to return to the relationship they had before Trump took office.
 
They probably won’t return to the relationship of the Obama era. On the one hand, the entire situation has changed. If there really are differences, they will be regarding methods and key points.
 
The Biden administration is expected to pose issues for China in terms of the bilateral relationship and human rights. Outgoing Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused China of genocide against Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang shortly before leaving office. The accusation is viewed as Trump’s parting shot against China. It remains unknown whether this will be viewed by Biden as a bargaining chip or another obstacle.
 
The current circumstances are sending a strong message to the Biden administration, which is that there is no way Beijing can return to 1997, to the Clinton era. Back then, national security reports explicitly stated that the U.S. should help Beijing with peaceful evolution. The framework of the U.S.-China relationship has change completely during these past 25 years, one-quarter of a century.
 
There is no going back for the U.S.-China relationship. However, one scholar believes the Biden administration will use cooperative competition over the next four years. Biden cannot let crisis come from China if he wants to improve the relationship.
 
 
 
美國總統拜登正式走馬上任,對於前總統川普的抗中友台政策,尤其是印太戰略,拜登是否會延續,關係美中台三方的未來發展,台灣學者普遍認為,雖然美中關係可望改善,但拜登不會全面推翻印太戰略,從他任命資深外交政策專家坎貝爾擔任印太事務協調官,可見端倪。
 
中研院歐美研究所研究員 林正義表示:「(拜登)不會全部都推翻,川普對中國的政策。其中有一項就是印太戰略,印太這個名詞,還是同樣被延續,更重要的是任命了一位,印太事務的一個協調官。」
 
從美中貿易戰到新冠疫情,美中關係陷入前所未有的低潮。而拜登當選以來,學者觀察,一直未與中國國家主席習近平通電話,再加上美中對南海問題的矛盾,美中想要回到川普之前的情勢,恐怕有難度。 
 
台灣智庫執行委員 賴怡忠表示:「大概不會說,回到歐巴馬時代,一方面,是整個環境變了。如果真的會有差別,也只不過是在手段上面,以及在著重重點上面,可能會有些不太一樣。」
 
對中國而言,面對美國進入拜登時代的挑戰,不只兩岸議題,還有人權議題,美國前國務卿龐佩奧卸任前,發布聲明,認定中國對少數民族進行「種族滅族」,被形容是川普對中的最後一擊,對拜登而言,會是籌碼還是再添阻礙。
 
國防安全研究院所長 蘇紫雲表示:「(種種現況)給拜登政府,一個很強烈的訊息,就是北京不可能回到1997年,柯林頓時代。那時候國安報告書,很明顯說,要協助北京和平演變,這25年來,將近四分之一世紀,美中關係的架構,已經徹底改變了。」
 
美中關係似乎回不去了,但拜登時代才剛要展開,未來四年的對中路線,學者林正義推測,是合作式競爭,若想要進一步改善美中關係,前提在於,拜登不能讓他的要危機,來自於中國。
 

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