NT Dollar Reaches "Perng Fai-nan Line" at One Point|台幣強升 昨匯價一度觸及彭淮南防線

The NT dollar continues to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. Central Bank Governor Yang Chin-long recently said an exchange rate of NT$28 to US$1 will become the new norm in the short term. Meanwhile, the appreciation of the NT dollar is battering the export-oriented electronics industry.


The U.S.' quantitative easing and wild printing of money have resulted in hot money pouring into Asian currencies and pushed up the NT dollar exchange rate. On Oct. 27, the exchange rate at one time hit the "Perng Fai-nan Line" of NT$28.5 to US$1. It closed at NT$28.872, the highest point in the past nine years and two months. Central Bank Governor Yang Chin-lung recently said an exchange rate of NT$28 to US$1 will become the new norm, a prediction which has come true.

Taiwan is very clear that it may end up on the U.S.' list of currency manipulators unless it (the U.S.) changes its regulations. The Central Bank needs to be alert. As long as it remains alert, the NT dollar hovering around 28 will become the new norm.

On Oct. 28, the exchange rate continued ascending. It opened at 28.89, and exceeded 28.6 at one point to reach NT$28.587 to US$1, approaching the "Perng Fai-nan Line" of NT$28.5. Export-oriented industries are suffering from the strengthening of the currency. Metal casing supplier Catcher Technology's third quarter revenues were affected. It reported an exchange loss of NT$2.43 billion. This was coupled with the repatriation of overseas surpluses the previous quarter, which produced a one-time tax and resulted in a single quarter after-tax earnings of NT$569 million, a nearly 80 percent decline compared to the previous quarter and an over 80 percent decline year-on-year. The earnings per share fell from NT$3.63 to NT$0.75.

The third quarter financial report showed a one-off impact. The possibility of two consecutive quarters of significant appreciation is not that high, because the appreciation in the fourth quarter won't be as large as in the third quarter.

Analysts say the electronics industry is not the only one suffering exchange losses. The impact is also great on the machinery, machine tool, and life insurance industries. The U.S. dollar exchange rate is expected to continue changing until after the presidential election is over. Moreover, the U.S. Department of the Treasury has not yet released its latest list of currency manipulators, so the Central Bank may not be willing to rashly block the ascension. The "Perng Fai-nan Line" may be reached in the short term.



近期美國量化寬鬆，狂印鈔票，熱錢湧入亞幣，更推升台幣匯率走勢。 27號， 台幣兌美元匯價，一度觸及彭淮南防線，28塊5 ，來到 28.58 元，最後收在28.872 元，創9年2 個月以來新高。日前央行總裁楊金龍說的，28元兌1美元，會是"新常態"終於來了。

台經院景氣預測中心副主任 邱達生表示：「台灣已經很清楚的，除非他(美國)改規則啦！要不然的話，一定是在"匯率操縱國"的觀察名單。現在央行要很警慎，那它只要警慎的話，台幣在28塊徘徊，就是會變成一個新常態。」

28號台幣匯率持續走升，開盤28.89元， 開低走高，盤中再度升破28.6元關卡，最高28.587兑1美元，勁揚近3角，直逼"彭淮南防線"28.5元。台幣強升，出口導向產業首當其衝，其中金屬機殼大廠"可成"，第三季營收，就受到這波台幣走升衝擊，產生匯損24.3億，加上上季海外盈餘匯回，產生一次性稅金，導致單季稅後純益，只剩5.69億，和上季相比，衰退近八成，和去年同期相比衰退超過八成，每股純益，從3.63元，跌到只剩0.75元 。

萬寶投顧分析師 王榮旭表示：「第三季的一個財報，這個是一次性的一個衝擊。你連續兩季，大幅升值的一個可能性，並不是那麼的高。因為不排除，就是說，可能第四季升值的幅度，不會像第三季那麼的大。」

分析師表示，受匯損衝擊，不只電子業，機械業、工具機業者，以及壽險業衝擊也很大。美元匯率走勢變化，恐怕等美國總統大選結束後再觀察。並強調在美國財政部，尚未公布"匯率操縱國"名單以前，央行恐怕都不敢貿然"阻升"，外界預估，短期內台幣兌美元，不排除升破彭淮南防線。