Deteriorated Situation in Taiwan Strait: CrisisWatch|國際危機組織 將台海列政治安全惡化區域


The situation in the Taiwan Strait is tense, and the Crisis Group's conflict tracker for June showed deteriorated situations in 16 countries and areas, including the Taiwan Strait, Korean Peninsula, and China-India border. Scholars attribute the unstable situation in the Taiwan Strait to the competition between China and the United States.


The situation in the Taiwan Strait remains tense. So far this year, the People's Liberation Army has sent military aircraft to encircle Taiwan on 14 occasions, as well as entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone. The majority of the incidents occurred in June. The Crisis Group therefore listed the Taiwan Strait, Korean Peninsula, and China-India border in the 16 countries and areas with deteriorated situations in June. The report also indicated China will use all necessary measures to prevent Taiwan's independence.

It's still primarily due to the competition between the United States and China. There are signs that it has escalated compared to before. There has been an increased frequency of incursions into our air defense identification zone recently. During this time, the U.S. military has also stepped up the frequency of freedom of navigation voyages through the Taiwan Strait.

The report said Taiwan has concerns over the new security law for Hong Kong. This is not the first time that the Taiwan Strait has been listed as a deteriorated situation, but it was the first time this year. Scholars say this is a big warning sign for Taiwan, although there is little possibility of a large-scale conflict erupting in the Taiwan Strait at the present stage. With regards to the South China Sea, the PLA and the U.S. military recently held military exercises at the same time. On July 8, the U.S. announced that aircraft carriers Nimitz and Ronald Reagan and their carrier strike groups entered the South China Sea and will use force to achieve peace.

The U.S. Navy specially said that our exercises are not targeted at any country. However, the message it is sending is that we are the strongest naval force in this region, we have been present here for the last dozen years, and what we are doing includes freedom of navigation voyages and defending the stability of this region.

China has emerged as a power, and it's trying to increase its influence on its neighbors. It is even trying to control the entire South China Sea. The U.S. has sent two aircraft carriers and even a third to send the message that the U.S. still plays the most important role in the Asia-Pacific region and even the Indo-Pacific region.

Scholars say the U.S. has been holding military exercises with two aircraft carriers for many years, and its presence in the South China Sea is meant to show its superiority and send a political message. On July 8, the Japan Self-Defense Forces announced two of its warships are holding training exercises with the U.S. in the South China Sea to strengthen U.S.-Japan cooperation.



台海情勢持續升溫,中國解放軍今年已經十四度派遣軍機擾台,多次入侵我防空識別區,擾台次數集中在6月,引起"國際危機組織"高度關注,在最新的危機觀察報告中,罕見將台灣海峽,和朝鮮半島、中印邊境等16個地區,併列為政治安全情勢重大惡化地區,還提到,中國會用一切必要措施阻止台獨。

淡江大學戰研所副教授 李大中表示:「主要還是一個美國,跟中國大陸之間的競逐,比過去有升高的跡象。近來比較高頻率的這個,入侵到我們的防空識別區,以及這好長一陣子。這個美軍是更高頻率的,一個自由航行,通過台灣海峽的水域。」

報告指出,台灣擔憂港版國安法實施,國際危機組織雖不是第一次,點名台灣海峽情勢惡化,但今年首度亮燈號,學者直言,對台灣來說是不小警訊,但現階段,台海要爆發大規模衝突,可能性不高。至於南海近期火藥味十足,解放軍跟美軍日前同時軍演,美軍8號主動公布,雙航母打擊群尼米茲號雷根號,已駛入南海,強調用力量實現和平。

淡江大學戰研所副教授 李大中表示:「美國海軍也特別說,我們的演訓,沒有針對任何的國家,但是後面一個效果跟意涵,就是說,我們是一個這個地區裡面,最強大的一個海洋的武力。我們在這邊是執行,過去幾十年來,我們都在做的,包括自由航行,包括維護這個地區的一個穩定。」

政大東亞研究所名譽教授 丁樹範表示:「中國國力崛起,那麼想要試圖,增加它在對周邊國家的影響力,乃至於想要整個掌控南中國海。美國透過這種派雙航母,乃至於三個航空母艦來,也表示說,美國還是在這個亞太地區,乃至於整個印太地區,扮演更重要的角色。」

學者分析,美軍雙航母聯合軍演,行之有年,這回在南海頻頻現蹤,主要展現美國海上霸權地位,釋放政治訊息的意義,遠大於戰略訊號,此外,日本海上自衛隊8號公告,兩艘訓練艦跟美軍在南海共同訓練,強化美日雙方合作。

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