Poll Puts Han Ahead of Tsai, Ko in 3-Way Race|最新民調:若藍綠白"三腳督" 韓領先蔡.柯


According to the latest survey conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, assuming Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je will run for office and make it a three-way race, KMT's Han Kuo-yu will garner more support than Ko as well as president Tsai. In another scenario in which only the KMT and DPP candidates take part in the race, Tsai would lead at a support rating at 45 percent.


Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je still has not confirmed whether he will run in the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. This makes him the biggest factor that could affect the election results. According to the latest poll conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, in a scenario in which Ko runs for president, KMT Candidate, and Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu will garner more support than Ko and DPP Candidate and incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen. In another scenario in which only the KMT and DPP candidates take part in the race, Tsai would garner the highest support rating at 45 percent, ahead of Han's 40.1 percent.

The public's opinions on who should be Taiwan's next president are quite divided. Currently, most people favor (KMT Candidate) Han Kuo-yu.

If Ko Wen-je joins the race, it will certainly affect the outcome of the entire election. Many voters are hoping that he will take part, some because they support Ko, others hope that Ko could affect the election in ways that favor their candidate.

The survey also asked questions on Tsai's latest visit abroad. About 51 percent of the respondents said that her visit has helped boosted Taiwan's image on the international stage. On the other hand, former Legislator Lin Cho-shui believes Tsai's visit didn't do much good.
 
Many people in Taiwan believe Tsai's visit to Africa didn't do much to boost Taiwan's visibility. However, her passing through the U.S. has made a difference, which is reflected in the public's opinions.

No matter what the government claims, the treatment President Tsai's received when she passed through the U.S. was less than that of an official from another country. This is just the reality of our politics.

The latest survey also included questions on the public's identification with different political parties. The results show that 80 percent of the public support either the ruling DPP or the opposition KMT, and only 17.5 percent of the public said they are not affiliated with any party. You Ying-lung, the Chairperson of the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, said that the public grew increasingly divided once both major parties settled on their candidates. You said, if Ko hopes to attract undecided voters, he needs to act fast and join the race.



台北市長柯文哲遲遲不要鬆口,是否參選2020總統大位,卻成為影響藍綠布局的重大變數。在藍綠候選人定於一尊後,台灣民意基金會最新民調顯示,柯文如果參選,三腳督的局面,韓國瑜領先蔡英文和柯文哲;若是蔡韓對決,則蔡英文以45%的支持度,領先韓國瑜的40.1%。

台灣民意基金會董事長 游盈隆表示:「台灣總統選民,對於究竟誰會當選2020的台灣總統?其實是看法紛歧,莫衷一是的,但是目前,多數看好韓國瑜。」

時力立委 徐永明表示:「柯文哲如果參選,一定會影響整個盤勢,那選民在期待他進來,是希望變成他支持的候選人,還是去影響這整個盤勢的發展。」

而在總統蔡英文出訪成效上,民調顯示,約有五成一的民眾,認為這次出訪,對台灣國際地位的提升有幫助,不過,一向對蔡總統多有建言的前立委林濁水,則不以為然。

台灣民意基金會董事長 游盈隆表示:「大多數的國人都認為,蔡總統到非洲之行,對提升台灣的國際能見度,沒什麼幫助。這次到美國,就結果不大一樣,所以顯然民意是反應不同的。」

前立委 林濁水表示:「你再怎麼樣有改善,比人家一個小國的部長到美國去的待遇都不如,那這個是我們的政治現實。」

此外,民調就「政黨認同」進行調查,發現支持藍綠的民眾,加起來高達八成,中性選民只剩17.5%,游盈隆分析,如果柯文哲要寄望中間選民,可能會失望,因為藍綠推出人選後,沒有有意義的第三選擇出現,因此選民快速向藍綠靠攏,認為柯文哲等人,如果想參選,要把握這段時間,因為是最後的機會。